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21 Sep 2018

#Grain Comments

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-China reports 1st case of African swine fever in Jilin province as spread continues
-Russian crop/export estimates lowered
-USDA reports corn/SBM sold to unknown
-Cattle on Feed report this afternoon - trade estimates included

Soybeans were around 7 cents lower overnight, giving back some of yesterday’s solid gains, which appeared to be heavily technicaltrading
oriented. Corn traded in a small 3 cent range overnight, finishing with minor 1 cent gains. Wheat finished the overnight
session with minor losses. USDA’s quarterly Grain Stocks report and Small Grains Annual Summary report will be out next Friday,
September 28.
 China reported two new cases of African swine fever today, with one being the first reported case in Jilin province so far. ASF
cases have been reported in 8 provinces since the initial finding on August 8.
 Russian ag consultant IKAR lowered their estimate of the Russian wheat crop to 69.2 MMT from 69.6 MMT previously. USDA
raised their estimate to 71.0 MMT in the September WASDE from 68.0 MMT previously. Additionally, SovEcon lowered their
estimate of Russian wheat exports to 33.0 MMT from 33.9 MMT previously, while USDA was last at 35.0 MMT.
 Australian reported sold 50k tonnes of Australian Prime Wheat to Thailand for Dec-Jan arrival at around $280/tonne c&f in one of
the first new crop sales of the year. Recent prices for APW into Southeast Asia, though, have reportedly jumped to around
$295/tonne c&f. Russian wheat sold to Indonesia recently has been said to be priced around $250/tonne c&f.
 In our comments earlier in the week, we mentioned Indonesia’s decision to put a moratorium on new palm oil plantation
development. Specifics have been revealed that indicate the moratorium will be for a 3-year period and will include all permits
currently being processed, as well as on new applications which may be filed. There was a moratorium in place since 2011 for
new plantations on primary forest land and for peat land clearing, but this will be in effect nationwide.
 Malaysia will leave the crude palm oil export tax at zero for October.
 USDA reported the sale of 100k tonnes of soybean meal to unknown for new crop, 2018/19, delivery, as well as 122k tonnes of
corn to unknown for 2018/19, as well.
 This afternoon, the USDA will release the monthly Cattle on Feed report. The average estimate of cattle on feed as of Sept 1 is
105.4% of last year (104.2-106.0 range) vs 104.6 as of August 1. The average estimate of August placements is 104.4 (101.1-
107.0 range) vs 107.9 in July, while August marketings are estimated at 100.4 (99.8-104.3 range) vs 105.0 in July.

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