Which Markets Could Feel Trade War Repercussions First

 

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** TRADING THE TRADE WARS: MARKETS THAT COULD SEE MORE RISK, SOONER
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** BY BLU PUTNAM, CME GROUP CHIEF ECONOMIST
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** TRADE WAR REPERCUSSIONS FOR U.S. AGRICULTURE
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	* Sino-U.S. trade war escalates amid punishing tit-for-tat import tariffs
	* U.S. agriculture in the spotlight, soybeans in the eye of the storm
	* Top importer China could switch soybean purchases to Brazil, Argentina
	* Fallout could influence U.S. farmers to plant more corn than soy in 2019

 

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TRADE WAR IMPLICATIONS FOR THE ECONOMY AND MARKETS
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	* Large-cap U.S. stocks more vulnerable to trade war fallout
	* Trade war uncertainty, higher rates could be a drag on H2 growth
	* Chinese exports are slowing, yuan is weaker amid tit-for-tat tariffs  
	* Chances of a compromise over tariffs better after mid-term elections

 
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