-Record crush expected in this afternoon’s Oilseed Crushings report
-Brazilian soybean crop ideas ticked lower, safrinha corn higher
-Potentially record monthly Brazilian soybean exports in March
-India facing labor shortage going into record wheat crop harvest
This morning’s EIA weekly ethanol data update will make for interesting reading as notably declining production is expected to be shown.
 This afternoon, USDA will release the monthly Oilseed Crushings report and Grain Crushings report. The average estimate of February U.S. soybean crush is 176.9 million bushels (175.0-179.0 million range of ideas) vs 188.8 million in January and 8.7% larger than year ago Feb crush of 162.8 million, while obviously also being a new record for the month as previously implied by NOPA data. The average estimate reflects total U.S. crush 6.4% above NOPA crush for the month, in line with recent months. The average estimate of end February U.S. soybean oil stocks is 2.270 billion pounds (2.075- 2.400 billion range), down from 2.352 billion pounds in January and compares to 2.149 billion pounds last year Feb. The average estimate reflects U.S. total stocks 8.1% larger than NOPA-member stocks vs January’s 16.8% difference, while the average difference during the Sept-Dec period was 25.6%. January’s 16.8% difference was, by far, the smallest since USDA resumed monthly crush reports in May 2015.
 Following a recent crop tour, Brazilian ag consultancy, Agroconsult, lowered their estimate of the country’s soybean crop to 123.5 MMT from 124.3 MMT previously (USDA last 126.0 MMT) due to yields hits in RGDS. This compares to their estimate of last year’s crop of 118.8 MMT, while USDA is using 117.0 MMT last year. They raised their estimate of the 2nd corn crop, safrinha, to 74.7 MMT from 74.0 MMT previously and compares to CONAB’s latest estimate of 73.4 MMT and last year’s 73.2 MMT.
 Brazilian grain exporter association, Anec, said March soybean exports appear to have set a new all-time monthly record around 13.1 MMT, surpassing the previous 12.4 MMT record set in May 2018 and would compare to last year’s March exports of 8.5 MMT and February’s 5.1 MMT.
 The EIA reported 134 million gallons of biodiesel was produced in the U.S. in January, little-changed from 133 million in December and down 7% from 144 million gallons a year earlier. Yes, January data was just released yesterday, showing how slow it is to come out. However, while biodiesel production was down just 7%, soybean oil used for biodiesel production in January was down 16% from the previous year at 521 million pounds (623 mil Jan 2019) as SBO only accounted for 50% of total feedstocks used, the lowest portion in any month since April 2018, while the monthly SBO usage was also the lowest since April 2018, as well. 2019/20 marketing year to date (Oct-Jan) SBO for biodiesel usage of 2.146 billion pounds is down 23% from last year’s 2.793 billion pounds during the same period. Remember, though, the biodiesel tax credit was reinstituted in budget moves earlier in 2020, but with the latest data only through January, it was not yet in play at the time.
 Additional information on yesterday’s wire service report of China allowing the full resumption of Canadian canola imports indicates a potentially less impactful situation. Canadian officials have said there has not been an agreement to allow Richardson International and Viterra to resume exports, Canada’s two largest exporters and the companies specifically banned from shipping to China. However, China has renewed the allowance of canola imports from other companies as long as it meets the no greater than 1% foreign matter requirement.
ï‚· Algeria bought around 250k tonnes of wheat in the recent tender, bringing total purchases to 490k tonnes for June shipment periods, as they retendered recently following limited offers the first time around.
ï‚· Philippines passed on a tender for 50k tonnes of feed wheat citing offers being too high.
ï‚· India is facing a potentially severe farm labor shortage just at the time of an expected record wheat crop of 106.2 MMT needing to be harvested as the coronavirus pandemic has forced seasonal farm workers to return home. Widespread wheat harvest typically gets underway in mid-April.
Weather Dry weather will dominate most areas east of the MS River this week. By later tomorrow into Friday, a cold front will bring rains of .50-1†to around 75% of MN, IA and MO and totals of .25-.75†to the western ½ to 2/3rd of IL and WI. The rains will taper off to the .30†range or less in the rest of the region for later Saturday and Sunday. The 6-10 day period shows chances for rains of .50-1â€+ to most areas by the first half of next week. Coverage looks to be around 70%, with no clearly defined areas that will not get the rains. The Brazilian growing regions look to see rains of .50-1.5â€+ fall in most of RGDS, as well as northern Mato Grosso, with totals elsewhere generally under .35â€. The 6-10 day sees rains of .50-1â€+ to fall across most areas with totals generally under .30†in Sao Paulo. The Argentine growing regions look to see rains fall across most areas with a front that will work through Wednesday and Thursday. Totals in far northern Santa Fe, Entre Rios and most of Corrientes look to be in the .50-1†range, with totals of .35†elsewhere.