-Ideas China in for U.S. corn
-South Korea/Taiwan buy corn, but likely not U.S.
-USDA to resurvey for corn/soybean production updates for May report – but ND resurvey to come later
-Brazil may import corn in coming months
-Court rejects refinery case challenging previous waiver ruling
-USDA report tomorrow – trade estimate summary included
USDA will release the monthly WASDE report on tomorrow at 11:00 AM CT. Today’s EIA ethanol data is expected to show production levels continuing to be decimated amid the massive gasoline demand reduction as a result of the coronavirus stay-at-home mandates. U.S. markets will be closed on Friday for Good Friday.
USDA announced they will resurvey farmers in SD, MN, WI and WI later this month to get updated corn and soybean production estimates following the large amount of area that remained unharvested at the time of the survey for the January Crop Production report. Any revisions necessary will be provided in the May 12 report. As unharvested bushels count towards on-farm stocks for the December 1 U.S. Grain Stocks figure, adjustments to that number would be made, if necessary, as well. However, USDA said the resurvey of North Dakota farmers will not take place at the same time, given the much larger amount of unharvested area remaining in that state, but will at a yet undetermined time to be reflected in a future USDA report at some point. Based on the USDA’s final Crop Progress report last year, as of December 8, around 360 million bushels of corn was still unharvested in SD, MN, WI and MI combined, while roughly 260 million bushels of corn was unharvested in ND.
There is market talk China has been in for around 500k tonnes of U.S. corn.
Sinograin, China’s state grain reserve manager, granted 500k tonnes of soybeans to COFCO to keep crush operations flowing amid the near-term supply shortage as a result of previous rain-delayed shipments from Brazil. COFCO was also provided 500k tonnes of soybeans from reserves earlier in the year, as well.
South Korea was active again overnight, buying around 195k tonnes of corn for Aug/Sept shipment. Taiwan also bought 65k tonnes for June/July shipment believed to be Brazilian.
Kazakhstan said they will increase monthly wheat and flour export quotas, currently at 200k and 70k tonnes, respectively, in the coming months without providing details. Exports have been limited over the last month or so to ensure supplies for domestic needs are adequate.
Officials said Malaysian palm oil operations in the six of seven districts in top-producing state Sabah will remain closed until enough information is available that it is safe to resume.
As had been the case in the previous two years of very strong Brazilian corn exports, a meat lobby group in Brazil, ABPA, said corn imports may be needed starting next month as domestic corn prices reached all-time highs recently. Imports are likely to come from Argentina and Paraguay as the very weak Real currency to the U.S. dollar will likely prevent imports coming from the U.S.
Brazilian soy industry association, Abiove, said soybean exports to China, and all other destinations, are unaffected by the coronavirus pandemic.
A federal court rejected a case brought by two refiners challenging the January ruling that previous EPA-issued small refinery waivers were invalid.
Weather One more wave of rains will bring totals of .10-.60”+ to the northern 1/3 of IL and northern ½ of IN, as well as the southern 1/3rd of MN, WI and MI in the next 24 hours. Amounts in the rest of the Midwest will run generally less than .20”. The models have come into fairly good agreement on the details for the system late Sunday and into Monday. It looks to produce rains of .50-1”, with areas of 1”+ and coverage of around 85-90% to all of the region. Only the NW 2/3 of MN and far NW IA look to see less than .50” at this point. Some of the precip could fall as snow in MN, where a couple of inches are possible with this storm. The best chances for the 1”+ amounts are currently indicated for eastern IA, far NW IL and SW WI. The 6-10 day outlook is mostly dry and cold as the next chance for precip is seen for areas south of I-80 showing up for Friday of next week. Very early ideas on amounts are in the .25-.75” range. Temps will run near average for most of this week and then fall to below average for Sunday through much of next week, including sub-freezing temps down to the OH River and 20s from I-80 north early next week.