-China lifts Canada pork/beef import ban, approves French meat imports, agrees to buy Danish pork
-EU raises wheat crop estimate
-Brazil rain forecast favorable
-USDA reports Friday, trade estimate summary included
USDA’s monthly Crop Production and WASDE supply/demand balance sheet reports will be released on Friday. Our pre-report commentary/analysis can be found on Market Insights at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/37918. A summary of the average trade estimate is on the following page.
China lifted its 4-month ban on Canadian pork and beef imports, which initially was put in place as a result of claims of falsified/fraudulent export certificates provided with Canadian pork exports. Tensions heightened after the Canada’s arrest of Huawei Technologies chief financial officer in Canada in December 2018. The resumption of Canadian pork exports to China is expected to occur rather quickly with Chinese officials reportedly inquiring how much pork Canada could supply China in the next three months as negotiations over the lifting of the ban progressed. Separately, China also approved 20 French companies allowing the export of pork, poultry and beef, as well. Additionally, COFCO reportedly agreed to buy $100 million of Danish pork for 2020 shipment.
The Malaysian Palm Oil Board is set to release its monthly report on November 11. The average estimate of end October Malaysian palm oil stocks is 2.516 MMT (2.45-2.78 MMT range of ideas), rising from 2.449 MMT in September and would be a 7-month high, but below last year’s Oct stocks of 2.722 MMT. October palm oil production is estimated at 1.879 MMT (1.700-1.918 MMT range), up slightly from 1.842 MMT in September and would be the highest since last October’s 1.965 MMT, as their production typically hits its seasonal peak in the Sept-Nov period. September Malaysian palm oil exports are estimated at 1.594 MMT (1.34-1.61 MMT range), up from 1.410 MMT in Sept and compare to last year’s Oct exports of 1.578 MMT.
The EU Commission raised their estimate of the 2019/20 EU soft wheat crop to 147.0 MMT from 145.0 MMT previously (129.5 MMT last year), and raised estimated soft wheat exports to 26.0 MMT from 25.5 MMT previously. They ticked the EU corn crop estimate higher to 66.6 MMT from 66.5 MMT previously (69.4 MMT last year), while leaving the EU corn import estimate unchanged at 17.0 MMT. The rapeseed crop estimate was bumped lower to 16.8 MMT from 16.9 MMT previously, with imports raised to 6.0 MMT from 5.5 MMT previously.
South Korean feedmills bought 146k tonnes of optional origin corn in private deals, with Feb arrival dates and prices ranging from $206.53-$208.50 c&f, while a 55k tonne purchase specifically of Ukrainian corn was made at $212.65/tonne c&f for Dec 1-20 shipment, as well.
Private ideas of the Australian wheat crop continue to shrink with a 15.5 MMT estimate floated yesterday vs USDA last at 18.0 MMT and ABARES’ last estimate in September of 19.2 MMT. ABARES’ next crop update will be released on December 3.
There were no November soybean deliveries today.
Egypt ended up buying 175k tonnes of wheat in their latest tender, 120k tonnes French and 55k tonnes Russian.
Weather Rains of .50-1.5”+ will fall across the majority of the Brazilian growing regions in the next 5 days. Some 2”+ totals will be possible in these areas, with no strong bias to their outlay. Mainly dry weather looks to dominate most of the Argentine growing regions in the next 5 days, with some rains of .30-1” falling in Buenos Aries Saturday. The 6-10 day period still sees rains of 1-2” to fall in most of the Brazilian growing regions, with rains of .25-.75”+ to fall in most of Argentina, except Buenos Aries, which looks to be mainly dry. A clipper type system will continue to work east and bring 1-3” snows to southern sections of WI and MI, with rains of generally less than .20” in northern IL. The rains could change to snow in northern IL and bring generally under an inch tonight. An area of low pressure will bring rains of .50-1”+ to the southern 1/3 of MO as well as the southern ¼ of IL/IN later today into tomorrow. The rest of the region looks to be largely free from precip the rest of this week. The next clipper looks to arrive late Saturday and finish up Monday. It is indicated to bring a general 1-3” of snow to areas north of I-80, with rains of generally less than .30” and coverage of around 65% south of I-80. Yet another clipper is seen for the second half of next week and looks to bring similar results as the Sunday-Monday event. There are also indications in the European model of rains of .30-.80”+ to fall in southern IL, IN and OH by Thursday of next week. Temps will run below average across the region through most of the next 10 days.