-Record Brazilian corn area expected
-US/China trade talk rhetoric continues on both sides
-Argentine forecast adds rains late next week
-China believed to buy Brazil soybeans for Dec-Jan
-First Dec corn deliveries issued
A wire service poll of Brazilian ag consultants/analysts indicated overall expectations for record Brazilian corn area this year, rising 3.5% to 18.1 million hectares (44.7 mil acres) from last year’s 17.5 mil hectares (43.2 mil acres), obviously opening up the potential for a huge crop if weather cooperates. Roughly ¾ of the Brazilian crop, though, is accounted for by safrinha production (2nd crop) which gets planted mostly in Feb-Mar so there is plenty of uncertainty regarding total crop ideas depending on weather and price developments in the coming months. The poll showed average expectations for the Brazilian corn crop at 101.0 MMT vs last year’s 100.1 MMT, in line with the USDA’s most-recent estimate and above CONAB’s early ideas of 98.4 MMT.
US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said he believes President Trump is “serious” in his comments yesterday regarding potentially waiting until after the November 2020 election to finalize a trade deal with China. Ross’ tone was fairly hard-lined as “We have the leverage,” “They’re pretty well out of bullets,” “There’s no bid meetings scheduled right now, and there certainly is no signing date scheduled.” Trade talks apparently have largely stalled after the recent signing of U.S. legislation regarding Chinese human rights violations, which did not sit very well with Chinese officials, while the planned Dec 15 additional tariffs on Chinese products appear likely to go in place. All of the recent rhetoric appears to be an indication President Trump has no desire to pull back on current tariff levels as China desires to strike at least a Phase One deal. On the other side of the story, though, Bloomberg is reporting this morning, citing various unnamed sources, trade talks continue and an agreement prior to the Dec 15 is expected.
Japan’s upper house of parliament approved the trade deal agreed upon between President Trump and President Abe, among which includes reductions in import tariffs on U.S. beef and pork and provides increased access for U.S. wheat, essentially bringing U.S. ag product imports in line with other members of the Trans-Pacific Partnership which Trump pulled the U.S. from in 2017.
China is believed to have booked 1-2 cargoes of Brazilian soybeans for Dec-Jan shipment yesterday.
December corn saw the first deliveries of the cycle with 129 contracts put out by ABN AMRO and a last trade date of 8/05/19.
USDA reported the sale of 20k tonnes of soybean oil to Morocco for 2019/20 delivery this morning.
Weather Argentina saw rains of .30-.80” fall across far northern La Pampa and the NE ½ of Buenos Aries, as well as southern 1/3 of Santa Fe and southern ½ of Entre Rios yesterday. While mostly dry conditions are expected through mid-next week, forecasts have added rains for the 6-10 day period, indicating average amounts with most areas seeing .40-1” Friday. Rains of .30-1”, with areas of 1”+, fell across the Brazilian growing regions from northern Parana north, with coverage of around 75-80%. The rest of the Brazilian growing regions were mainly dry. Tropical, hit and miss showers and thunderstorms will bring rains of .50-1.5”+ to most of the Brazilian growing regions in the next 2-3 days. Some 1”+ totals are also likely, especially in Minas Gerais and Goias. The activity then looks to taper off across RGDS, Santa Catarina and Parana by Friday, with dry weather to take over for Friday and the weekend. In the 6-10 day period, rains of 1-2” look to continue to fall from hit and miss tropical showers and thunderstorms from northern Parana north in this time frame, with things mainly dry to the south.