-Soybean sales very strong – higher than expected for old and new crop
-Corn sales modest and within expectations
-Wheat sales modest and within expectations
-SBM at bottom of expectations, SBO sales minor cancellations old crop, but large new crop
U.S. soybean sales, for the week ended 8/06/20, were very large with old crop sales of 577k tonnes (20.9 mil bu) above expectations of 100-550k and new crop sales huge at 2.839 MMT (104.3 mil bu) sharply above expectations of 1.1-1.8 MMT. We would note USDA stated 356k tonnes of the old crop sales were late reported and were to China, which implies they were not made during this week’s reporting period and should have been included in previous sales data. Nonetheless, they are still previously unreported sales, which are now reflected on the books. China currently has 2.7 MMT (99 mil bu) in unshipped old crop sales still on the books with only three full weeks remaining in 2019/20. Total old crop commitments of 1.746 billion bushels are down 2.2% from last year’s 1.785 billion and are more than enough to allow exports to reach the USDA’s 1.650 billion bushels, but the question remains whether China will ship enough over the next three weeks to do so or roll them to 2020/21, resulting in total exports falling short of the USDA’s projection. Total new crop commitments are now at 661 million bushels vs 164 million last year at this time and are now right in line with all-time high new crop sales as of early August of 658-665 mil bu for the 13/14 and 14/15 marketing years. This week’s activity included 1.71 MMT in new crop sales to China, bringing their 20/21 total purchases to 10.3 MMT, but since this week’s “as of” date, USDA has announced additional sales to China of 1.6 MMT (including this morning’s), raising the total to 11.9 MMT.
Old crop corn sales last week were 377k tonnes (14.8 mil bu), within expectations of 100-400k tonnes, but were the largest in four weeks. This week’s activity included 77k tonnes of old crop sales to China. This brought 2019/20 total commitments to 1.739 billion bushels, down 11.7% from last year’s 1.968 billion, but the USDA’s 1.795 billion bushel export projection reflects an estimated 13.1% decline from last year. Corn is in a similar situation to soybeans in needing very strong shipments in the final weeks of the old crop marketing year in order to reach the USDA’s target as 163 mil bu remains unshipped at this time vs 102 million a year ago. New crop sales were only 553k tonnes (21.8 mil bu), which were within market expectations of 300k-1.0 MMT but generally uninspiring. However, 2020/21 total commitments of 452 million bushels are sharply above last year’s 173 mil bu at this time and are the largest new crop sales in early August in 24 years.
U.S. wheat sales last week were 368k tonnes (13.5 mil bu), in the lower portion of market expectations of 250-800k tonnes and were the lowest in five weeks. However, they were still generally in line with the roughly 14.4 mil bu/week in which wheat sales need to average in order to reach the USDA’s 975 mil bu export projection. Total commitments of 389 mil bu are up 7.8% from last year’s 361 mil bu now two full months into the 2020/21 marketing year.
Old crop soybean meal sales were 182k tonnes, at the bottom end of market expectations of 150-450k tonnes, but still sharply above the minor 36k tonnes/week we estimate sales need to average in order to reach the USDA’s export projection. Total commitments are now up 1.7% from last year, in line with USDA’s projected increase, but there are still 8 weeks remaining in the 2019/20 marketing year and sales over the last 8 weeks have run 91% stronger than during the same period last year. New crop sales were 70k tonnes vs expectations of 150-250k with total commitments now at 1.055 MMT vs 1.198 MMT last year. Old crop soybean oil saw minor net cancellations of 2.5k tonnes vs expectations for sales of 8-35k tonnes, but sales over the last 8 weeks have averaged 12.6k tonnes/week vs the roughly 7k/week average needed to reach the USDA’s export projection. Total commitments are up 44.5% from last year vs USDA projecting 2019/20 exports up 46.9% on the year. New crop sales were strong, though, at 48.7k tonnes vs expectations of 0-5k tonnes with South Korea buying 28k tonnes and Guatemala switching old crop sales to new crop accounting the net cancellations.