-Soybean old crop sales lower than expected, new crop sales slightly above expectations
-Corn sales lower than expected
-Wheat sales as expected
-SBM sales as expected/SBO sales minimal
Old crop soybean sales, for the week ended 6/25/20, were 242k tonnes (8.9 million bushels), below market expectations of 300-800k tonnes, down from the previous week’s 22.1 million bushels and were a new marketing year low. There was no old crop sales activity for China this week. While old crop sales may be considered disappointing, total commitments of 1.655 billion bushels have already reached a level which could allow the USDA’s 1.650 billion bushel export projection to be met when taking into consideration the differences between official Census Bureau exports and the sales report’s data. It will all come down to whether China ships the 2.9 MMT in old crop sales on the books before the end of August or decides to carry them forward into 2020/21. New crop sales were solid at 842k tonnes (30.9 mil bu), slightly above the range of market ideas of 300-800k tonnes, and brought 2020/21 total commitments to 255 million bushels vs 91 million at this time last year. China bought 594k tonnes of new crop soybeans for the week and now has 4.0 MMT on the books for next year.
U.S. corn sales last week of 361k tonnes (14.2 mil bu) were below market expectations of 450-700k tonnes, but were up modestly from the previous week’s 8.2 mil bu and last year’s same-week sales of 6.9 million. A considerable slowdown in sales has been seen of late, averaging 12.2 mil bu/week over the last three weeks vs 25.0 mil/week over the four prior weeks. This is to be expected as the marketing year winds down, but what’s most important is sales continue to meet/exceed the roughly 7.6 mil bu/week average needed through the end of August in order to reach the USDA’s 1.775 bil bu export projection. Total commitments of 1.656 bil bu are down 14% from last year’s 1.926 billion. New crop sales were 263k tonnes (10.3 mil bu) vs expectations of 0-200k and brought 2020/21 total commitments to 153 mil bu vs 131 mil in new crop sales at this time last year.
U.S. wheat sales last week were 414k tonnes (15.2 mil bu), in line with expectations of 250-600k tonnes, but were down from the previous two weeks’ 19.1 mil and 18.5 mil bu, but were better than last year’s same-week sales of 9.4 mil bu. Through four weeks of the 2020/21 marketing year, total commitments of 267 million bushels continue to parallel last year’s 265 million. We estimate wheat sales will need to average roughly 14.5 million bushels/week through the marketing year in order to reach the USDA’s 950 mil bu export projection, similar to last year’s overall pace.
Soybean meal sales were 143k tonnes, in line with expectations of 75-250k tonnes and easily exceeding the roughly 65k tonnes/week we estimate sales need to average in order to reach the USDA’s export projection. Over the last four weeks, SBM sales have averaged 136k tonnes/week. Total commitments of 11.063 MMT are now down only 2% from last year after being down more than 8% as recently as early May. The USDA’s export projection reflects a 1% decline from last year. Soybean oil sales were minimal at 2.8k tonnes vs expectations of 5-25k tonnes, but have averaged 9.7k tonnes/week over the last five weeks. We estimate SBO sales only need to average around 1.5k tonnes/week to reach the USDA’s export projection.
