-Corn sales as expected
-Soybean sales above top end of expectations
-Wheat sales minimal – below expectations
-SBM at bottom of expectations – SBO sales very strong
U.S. corn sales, for the week ended 3/26/20, were 1.075 MMT (42.3 million bushel), within market expectations of 700k-1.2 MMT and while down from last week’s very strong 71.4 million bushels, they were double year ago same-week sales of 21.1 million and, again, were considerably better than the average “needed” sales pace of roughly 18.8 million bushels/week in order for the USDA’s 1.725 billion bushel export projection to be met. The largest sales this week went to Mexico with 258k tonnes, followed by Japan with 221k. Corn sales over the last 12 weeks have averaged 43.9 million bushels/week vs 35.8 million/week during the same period last year. Total commitments of 1.256 billion bushels are still down 26% from last year’s 1.701 billion, but the strong pace of sales of late is likely to allow USDA to hold the line on their export estimate in the April 9 WASDE report.
U.S. soybean sales of 958k tonnes (35.2 million bushels) were above market expectations of 375-900k tonnes and just surpassing the previous week’s 33.2 million to be the highest of the last 15 weeks. However, this week’s sales were dwarfed by massive year ago sales of 74.8 million bushels. Sales of 131k tonnes to China were reflected in this week’s data, with the largest sales of the week going to Mexico with 343k tonnes. Each of the last three week’s sales have surpassed the roughly 20.9 million bushels/week in average “needed” sales in order for the USDA’s 1.825 billion bushel export projection to be reachable. Total commitments of 1.354 billion bushels are still down 15.4% from last year’s 1.601 billion vs USDA projecting a 4.4% increase in exports on the year. There is a lot of work to be done if the USDA’s export estimate is to be reached, to say the least.
U.S. wheat sales last week were dismal at just 73k tonnes (2.7 million bushels), a marketing year low and below market expectations of 100-500k tonnes. This week’s poor sales were in contrast to what had been a fairly impressive stretch which saw an average of 19.3 million bushels/week in sales over the previous 11 weeks, all of which had exceeded the average “needed” sales pace at the time. Total commitments of 911 million bushels now up just 2% from last year’s 894 million, a low for the marketing year, while USDA is estimating this year’s exports will be up nearly 7% from last year. Sales will need to rebound in the coming weeks if the USDA’s export estimate is to be met. New crop sales of 186k tonnes were also disappointing with market expectations of 150-450k tonnes.
U.S. soybean meal sales of 125k tonnes were in the lower portion of market expectations of 100-350k tonnes, but still met the roughly 88k tonnes/week average “needed” pace in order to reach the USDA’s export projection. However, this week’s sales were down from the previous week’s 251k tonnes and last year’s same-week sales of 190k. Total commitments are down 5.7% from last year vs USDA estimating exports to be down 2.6% year-over-year. For the most part, though, sales of late have supported the USDA’s export projection. Soybean oil sales, on the other hand, were very strong at 67.0k tonnes, beating market expectations of 8-40k tonnes and setting a new marketing year high for the 2nd consecutive week. South Korea bought 42k tonnes last week. Total commitments of 899k tonnes are now up an extremely impressive 54% from last year vs the USDA projecting 2019/20 exports up only 8.2% on the year. Clearly, the USDA will need to raise their SBO export estimate at some point, most likely in the April 9 WASDE report.
