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-Soybean sales sharply below expectations
-Corn sales at bottom of expectations
-Wheat sales lower than expected
-SBM/SBO sales at bottom of expectations
-Large sorghum sales reported to unknown/China

U.S. soybean sales, for the week ended 2/20/20, were minimal at just 339k tonnes (12.5 mil bu), falling from the previous week’s disappointing sales of 15.7 million bushels, were massively below last year’s same-week sales of 77.9 million bushels and were below market expectations of 600-900k tonnes. Additionally, this week’s sales were the 2nd lowest of the first 25 weeks of the 2019/20 marketing year and reflected net new purchases by China of a mere 6k tonnes. The largest sales this week were a paltry 70k tonnes by Costa Rica. Total commitments of 1.239 billion bushels are now down 13.3% from last year’s 1.429 billion, the largest year-over-year percentage decline in sales since late October. Over the last 10 weeks, soybean sales have averaged just 19.5 million bushels/week (531k tonnes) vs last year’s average sales during the same period of 41.7 mil bu (1.135 MMT). Unshipped Chinese purchases are down to just 419k tonnes. Soybean sales will need to average roughly 21.3 million bushels/week through the end of August in order to reach the USDA’s 1.825 billion bushel export projection vs last year’s 13.5 mil bu/week average from this point forward.

U.S. corn sales last week of 865k tonnes (34.0 mil bu) were at the lower end of market expectations of 800k-1.3 MMT, were down from the previous week’s 49.3 mil, well below last year’s same-week sales of 48.8 mil and were the lowest in six weeks. Sales activity for the week was rather routine with Japan and Mexico leading the way.  While sales were disappointing relative to expectations and recent-week activity, they were still above the roughly 24.1 million bushel/week average needed to reach the USDA’s 1.725 billion bushel export projection, the seventh consecutive week sales have outpaced the “needed” level. Total commitments of 1.019 billion bushels are down 35% from last year’s 1.557 billion, though, vs the USDA projecting a 16.5% decline in exports on the year. Accordingly, sales will need to run solidly above last year’s overall weak March-August sales program which averaged just 15.1 million bushels/week from this point forward.

U.S. wheat sales of 382k tonnes (14.0 mil bu) were below market expectations of 400-600k tonnes and were below year ago same-week sales of 17.5 million, but slightly improved from the previous weeks 12.5 million bushels. While wheat sales have been far from inspiring of late, the 15.7 million bushel/week average over the last four weeks still has exceeded the roughly 9.1 million/week average we estimate is needed through the end of May in order to reach the USDA’s 1.000 billion bushel export projection. Wheat sales from this point forward last year averaged 10.2 mil bu/week. Total commitments of 832 mil bu are up 3.1% from last year’s 807 mil, while the USDA is projecting exports to be up 6.8% when all is said and done.

U.S. soybean meal sales were a 7-week low of 158k tonnes, slipping from the previous week’s 169k and were at the bottom end of market expectations of 150-350k tonnes, but were better than last year’s same-week sales of 114k. More importantly, they were above the roughly 120k tonnes/week SBM sales need to average in order to reach the USDA’s export projection, the 7th consecutive week exceeding the “needed” pace, averaging 319k tonnes/week during the period vs last year’s 226k tonnes/week over the same time frame. Total commitments are still down 7.6% from last year vs USDA projecting a 2.6% decline on the year. Soybean oil sales were also a 7-week low at just 5.6k tonnes, declining notably from the 42.5k/week average over the previous six weeks. However, SBO sales only need to average around 6k tonnes/week anyway in order to reach the USDA’s export projection given the rather strong sales seen over the last three months or so. Total commitments are still up 35% from last year vs USDA projecting a 2% decline in exports on the year.

This week’s Export Sales report reflected rather notable sales of sorghum of 445k tonnes (17.5 mil bu) with 324k tonnes reported to unknown and 119k tonnes to China. These were the largest single-week sorghum sales since mid-December 2014.

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