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-Corn sales better than expected
-Soybean sales weaker than expected
-Wheat sales weaker than expected
-SBM below expectations by better than “needed”/SBO sales solid

NOTE: This week’s data reflects the resumption of the USDA’s reporting last year following the government shutdown. Accordingly, the reflection of sales relative to last year is now accurate.

U.S. corn sales, for the week ended 2/13/20, were solid at 1.249 MMT (49.2 million bushels), up from the previous week’s 38.0 million bushels, above market expectations of 700k-1.1 MMT and in line with the prior two weeks’ sales of 49.2 and 48.6 mil bu, respectively. Over the last five weeks, corn sales have averaged 44.9 million bushels/week, modestly better than the 39.6 million/week average experienced during the same period last year. This week’s sales included 450k tonnes to Japan, 292k to Mexico and 197k to South Korea. Total commitments of 985 million bushels are still down 35% from last year, but continue to slowly whittle away at the shortfall after being down more than 45% year-over-year in late November. The USDA’s 1.725 billion bushel export projection reflects an estimated 16.5% decline in exports on the year and will require corn sales to average roughly 24.4 mil bu/week through the end of August vs last year’s 16.3 million/week from this point forward.

U.S. soybean sales last week of 494k tonnes (18.2 mil bu) were below market expectations of 600k-1.2 MMT and were the 2nd lowest of the last six weeks. Chinese activity was nearly non-existent, reflecting an increase in commitments of just 11.5k tonnes for the week. The largest sales actually went to Mexico with 81k tonnes. China’s unshipped sales on the books are down to just 416k tonnes. There is no doubt considerable Chinese purchases will be needed if the USDA’s 1.825 billion bushel export projection is to be met. Nearly halfway through the marketing year, total commitments of 1.229 billion bushels are down 9% from last year’s 1.351 billion, while the USDA is currently estimating soybean exports rising 4.4% from last year. With soybean sales during the 2nd half of the marketing year typically a fraction of 1st half sales, obviously a rather strong atypical sales program will be needed as sales need to average roughly 21 million bushels/week in order for exports to reach the USDA’s projection vs last year’s 15.8 million/week from this point forward.

U.S. wheat sales were disappointing at 346k tonnes (12.7 mil bu), below market expectations of 400-650k tonnes, down from the previous week’s 23.6 million and were the 2nd lowest of the last six weeks. Total commitments of 818 million bushels are up 3.6% from last year’s 789 million, but declining as sales were up nearly 8% year-over-year in mid-December. The USDA’s 1.000 billion bushel export projection reflects an estimated 6.8% increase in exports from last year and will require sales to average roughly 9.5 million bushels/week over the final 15 weeks of 2019/20 vs last year’s 10.7 million/week average from this point forward.

U.S. soybean meal sales last week of 169k tonnes were a bit below market expectations of 200-400k tonnes, but were still better than the roughly 121k tonnes/week “needed” sales pace to reach the USDA’s export projection. Despite the very impressive run of SBM sales of late, which have averaged 345k tonnes/week over the last six weeks vs last year’s 245k/week average during the same period, total commitments of 7.685 MMT are still down 8.3% from last year’s 8.379 MMT, trailing the USDA’s expected 2.6% year-over-year decline in exports. SBM sales from this point forward last year averaged 121k tonnes/week. Soybean oil sales were solid at 42k tonnes, at the top end of expectations of 15-45k and keeping pace with recent activity in which sales have averaged 42.5k tonnes/week over the last six weeks. During the same period last year, SBO sales averaged 15.4k tonnes/week. Total commitments of 683k tonnes are up 37.2% from last year’s 498k, continuing to notably outpace the USDA’s ideas of exports being down 2.1% from last year.

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