-Soybean sales at bottom of expectations
-Wheat sales at top of expectations
-Corn sales as expected
-SBM sales decent/SBO sales solid
U.S. soybean sales, for the week ended 2/06/20, were 645k tonnes (23.7 million bushel), at the bottom end of market expectations of 600k-1.0 MMT and were down slightly from the previous week’s 25.9 million bushels, but still meeting the roughly 20.8 million bushels/week in average sales needed in order for 2019/20 export to reach the USDA’s new 1.825 billion bushel export projection. New sales to China of 132k tonnes were reflected this week. Based on this week’s data, China only has 674k tonnes (24.8 mil bu) in unshipped purchases still on the books so without sizable additional purchases being made, overall U.S. soybean shipment activity will continue to decline notably moving forward. Total commitments of 1.211 billion bushels are down an estimated 8% from last year vs USDA estimating 2019/20 exports to rise 4.4% year-over-year indicating their expectation/optimism for Chinese business to develop. Next week’s data will allow for the resumption of true comparisons to year ago data as the reporting of Export Sales data caught up following the government shutdown.
U.S. corn sales last week of 969k tonnes (38.1 million bushels) were within market expectations of 700k-1.2 MMT, but were the lowest in four weeks falling below the 39.6-49.2 mil bu seen in the previous three weeks. Overall corn sales, though, have shown life of late with each of the last five weeks’ sales exceeding the roughly 25.3 million bushel/week average “needed” sales pace in order to reach the USDA’s just-lowered 1.725 billion bushel export projection. Corn sales from this point forward last year averaged 17.1 mil bu/week. Total commitments of 935 million bushels are down an estimated 36% from last year vs USDA estimating 2019/20 exports to decline 16.5% year-over-year.
U.S. wheat sales of 643k tonnes (23.6 mil bu) were at the top end of market expectations of 300-650k tonnes and rebounded from the previous week’s poor sales of just 12.4 mil bu, while falling in line with sales the previous three weeks of 23.5-25.6 mil bu. Over the last five weeks, wheat sales have averaged 21.9 mil bu/week vs the average “needed” sales pace of 9.7 million/week in order to reach the USDA’s just-raised 1.000 billion bushel export projection. Sales from this point forward last year averaged 11.4 mil bu/week. Total commitments of 805 million bushels are up an estimated 4.9% from last year vs USDA estimating 2019/20 exports up 6.8% on the year.
U.S. soybean meal sales of 234k tonnes were within market expectations of 125-400k tonnes and were similar to the previous week’s 213k tonnes. Overall, SBM sales continue to run at a solid clip, now averaging 381k tonnes over the last five weeks vs the 122k tonnes/week “needed” pace to reach the USDA’s export projection. SBM sales from this point forward last year averaged 125k tonnes/week. Soybean oil sales were solid again at 39.1k tonnes vs market expectations of 7-30k tonnes and have averaged a very impressive 42.7k tonnes/week over the last five weeks vs the current average “needed” sales pace of only around 7k tonnes/week. SBO sales from this point forward last year averaged 13.4k tonnes/week.