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-Soybean exports higher than expected, 8-week high, but still less than “needed”
-Corn exports lower than expected
-Wheat exports lower than expected

NOTE: This week’s Export Inspections data was delayed due to “technical difficulties” at the USDA.

U.S. soybean exports, for the week ended 7/02/20 were 522k tonnes (19.2 million bushels), up from the previous week’s 334k tonnes (12.3 mil bu), above market expectations of 250-450k tonnes (9.2-16.5 mil bu) and an 8-week high. Despite all that, this week’s exports were still solidly below the roughly 24.5 million bushels/week we estimate they will need to average over the final 8 weeks of the 2019/20 marketing year in order to reach the USDA’s 1.650 billion bushel export projection. This week’s activity included 137k tonnes shipped to China. Cumulative export inspections of 1.372 billion bushels are now down 1.4% from last year’s 1.391 billion bushels, with the gap likely to widen through the end of the year given last year’s impressive late-season shipment pace, thanks to China, averaging 36.2 million bushels during July-August.

U.S. corn exports last week were 962k tonnes (37.9 million bushels), below market expectations of 1.05-1.35 MMT (41.3-53.1 mil bu), down from the previous week’s 1.241 MMT (48.9 mil bu) and were the 2nd lowest of the last 11 weeks. They were better than last year’s same-week exports of 721k tonnes (28.4 million bushels). Cumulative export inspections of 1.347 billion bushels are down 19.5% from last year’s 1.672 billion bushels, continuing to slowly gain given the weak late season export program last year. We estimate corn exports will need to average roughly 38 million bushels/week during July-August in order to reach the USDA’s 1.775 billion bushel export program vs the last six weeks’ exports averaging 44.1 mil bu/week and last year’s 23.0 million/week average from this point forward.

U.S. wheat exports last week were the lowest of the first five weeks of the 2020/21 marketing year at 326k tonnes (12.0 mil bu), below market expectations of 450-650k tonnes (16.5-23.9 mil bu), down from the previous week’s 515k tonnes (18.9 mil bu) and well below last year’s same-week exports of 628k tonnes (23.1 mil bu). Cumulative export inspections of 86 million bushels are now down 11% from last year’s 96 million following this week’s poor performance, with shipments needing to average roughly 17.3 million bushels/week over the course of the marketing year in order to reach the USDA’s 950 million bushel export projection.

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