-Corn exports at top end of expectations and marketing year high, but still below “needed” pace
-Soybean exports at bottom of expectations, a marketing year low and below “needed” pace
-Wheat exports four week low, below “needed” pace
U.S. corn exports, for the week ended 2/20/20, were a marketing year high 913k tonnes (35.9 million bushels), coming in at the top end of market expectations of 600-950k tonnes (23.6-37.4 mil bu), rising from the previous week’s 795k tonnes (31.3 mil bu) and above last year’s same-week exports of 762k tonnes (30.0 mil bu). Despite the relatively good appearance of corn exports last week, they were still below the roughly 39.6 million bushels/week we estimate shipments need to average through the end of August in order to reach the USDA’s 1.725 billion bushel export projection. Corn exports have increased for three consecutive weeks as the long-anticipated seasonal improvement is underway as South American exports slow, but the jury is still out as to whether it will be too little too late to reach the USDA’s estimate. Cumulative exports of 521k tonnes are still down 47% from last year’s 982 million, while the USDA is projecting a 16.5% decline in exports on the year. Year ago corn exports from this point forward averaged 32.4 million bushels/week.
U.S. soybean exports last week were a marketing year low 595k tonnes (21.8 million bushels), at the very bottom of market expectations of 600k-1.1 MMT, down from the previous week’s 1.005 MMT (36.9 mil bu) and significantly below last year’s same-week exports of 1.309 MMT (48.1 mil bu). For the second time in three weeks, soybean exports also fell below the roughly 25.6 million bushels/week we estimate is needed through the end of August in order to reach the USDA’s 1.825 billion bushel export projection. This week’s exports included just 138k tonnes to China and reduces their outstanding sales on the books to roughly only 278k tonnes based on last week’s Export Sales report. Cumulative exports of 1.061 billion bushels are still up 15% from last year’s 923 million, but falling fast as they were up more than 26% in early January. Soybean exports from this point forward last averaged a record-high 28.0 million bushels given the atypical, late season push by China to ship remaining old crop purchases on the books.
U.S. wheat exports last week of 412k tonnes (15.1 mil bu) fell from the previous week’s 503k tonnes (18.5 mil bu), were well below last year’s same-week exports of 768k tonnes (28.2 mil bu) and were in the lower portion of market expectations of 350-600k tonnes (12.9-22.0 mil bu). More importantly, each of the last nine weeks’ exports have been below the current 21.2 million bushel/week average we estimate is needed in order to reach the USDA’s 1.000 billion bushel export projection, averaging 16.1 million bushels/week during the period. Wheat exports from this point forward last year averaged 21.7 million bushels/week. Cumulative exports of 667 million bushels are still up nearly 10% from last year’s 607 million, but fading fast. The USDA is currently projecting 2019/20 U.S. wheat exports up 6.8% from last year.
