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This morning, in the opening session of the USDA’s Ag Outlook conference, some preliminary ideas on the 2019/20 U.S. crop situation were released by the USDA. Their full initial ideas on the 2019/20 balance sheets will be released tomorrow morning.

Initial 2019/20 acreage ideas by USDA indicate expectations for total acreage among corn, wheat and soybeans to be slightly lower from last year at 224.0 million acres (226.1 million last year) and compares to the sum of average wire service survey estimates of 224.9 million acres. Initial USDA corn acreage ideas were put at 92.0 million acres vs 89.129 million last year and compares to the 92.0 million acres USDA showed in their previously-released early baseline projections in November. A wire service survey ahead of today’s numbers put the average expectation at 91.512 million acres (88.0-93.1 million range of ideas). USDA looks for soybean acreage at 85.0 mil acres vs 89.196 mil last year and compares to the 82.5 mil they penciled in for their baseline projections. Average market expectations were put at 86.144 million acres (84.5-91.0 million range). All wheat planted area is seen at 47.0 mil acres by USDA vs 47.8 mil last year and the baseline balance sheet putting this year’s acreage at 51.0 million, while average market expectations were 47.196 million (46.3-48.9 million range). USDA reflected cotton acres at 14.3 vs 14.1 million last year. Combined corn, soybean, wheat and cotton acres are estimated at 238.3 million acres vs 240.2 million last year.

The table below shows a comparison of the USDA’s February Ag Outlook Conference acreage estimates to actual acreage over the last 15 years. 

The 2019/20 corn average farm price expectation was put at $3.65/bushel and compares to 2018/19’s estimated $3.60.

USDA sees the 2019/20 U.S. average farm price for soybeans at $8.80/bushel vs an estimated $8.60 for 2018/19.

The 2019/20 wheat average farm price is seen $5.20/bushel vs $5.15 for 2018/19.

The 2018/19 cotton average farm price was estimated at 67.0 cents/lb vs 72.0 for 2018/19.

For livestock, USDA sees the 2019 U.S. cattle average price at $118.50/cwt vs $117.12/cwt for 2018, hogs at $42.50/cwt vs $45.93/cwt for 2018 and broilers at 97.0 cents/pound vs 97.8 cents/pound for 2018.

The following table provides a comparison of the USDA’s February Ag Outlook conference price estimates vs actual levels over the last 10 years. .

USDA will release the full look at the 2019/20 balance sheets tomorrow morning.


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