-Ukraine corn crop estimate raised
-French wheat crop estimate bumped slightly higher/corn slightly lower
-Russian wheat lowest offer in Egypt tender
-No USDA sales announcements
U.S./China trade talks Thursday/Friday add to the volatility risk this week, as well.
President Trump said the new biofuels policy proposal should bring annual ethanol blending to around 16 billion gallons vs the current RFS mandate of 15.0 billion gallons, which on paper makes sense given the expected inclusion of refinery waiver gallons being reallocated into the annual mandate, but in reality/practicality, that may be a bit more difficult in light of U.S. annual gasoline demand running around 142-143 billion gallons in recent years, which would push the nationwide blend well above 10%. Additionally, with somewhere around 2 billion gallons in excess RINs, one can question the degree of additional potential blending, as well.
Ukrainian ag consultant ProAgro raised their estimate of the country’s total grain crop to 76.5 MMT from 74.3 MMT previously due to an upward revision in the corn crop to 37.4 MMT from 35.2 MMT previously, which is modestly above the USDA’s latest estimate of 36.0 MMT, as well as last year’s 35.8 MMT crop. The wheat crop estimate of 28.2 MMT is mostly in line with USDA’s 28.7 MMT estimate and up solidly from last year’s 25.1 MMT.
France slightly raised their estimate of this year’s soft wheat crop to 39.75 MMT from 39.45 MMT previously, reflecting a strong rebound from last year’s poor crop of 34.05 MMT. The estimate of this year’s corn crop was lowered modestly to 12.5 MMT from 12.8 MMT previously and would be unchanged from last year. The barley crop was left unchanged at 13.6 MMT and reflects a solid increase from last year’s 11.2 MMT.
A French grain export promotion agency sees Morocco importing 3.8 MMT of wheat in 2019/20, with wheat from France accounting for around 2.5 MMT, reflecting a solid increase in total imports from last year of 2.5 MMT, of which 1.4 MMT was French.
The UK estimated this year’s wheat crop at 16.3 MMT, up significantly from last year’s poor crop of just 13.6 MMT, with the barley crop estimated at 8.2 MMT, up sharply from last year’s 6.5 MMT.
Egypt tendered for wheat for Nov 10-20 shipment after the close yesterday. The 3 lowest offers were Russian wheat from $220.45- $222.23/tonne c&f.
The market shrugged off the 2% decline in soybean crop conditions and 1% decline in corn conditions last week, while corn and soybean harvest progress were both a bit less than expected, as well. Details on yesterday’s update can be found at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/37599.
There were no USDA sales announcements this morning.
USDA’s monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports will be out Thursday morning at 11:00 AM CT. Our pre-report comments/analysis can be found on Market Insights at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/37574. A summary of the average trade estimates is on the following page.
Weather An early season, major blizzard looks to bring 10-20”+ of snow to the eastern 1/2 of ND and NW 3/4 of SD and possibly sections of NW MN later this week and weekend. Along with the snows, wind in excess of 45 mph could create lodging issues. Ahead of the snows, things look to be mild and dry. The early part of next week also looks to be dry, with below average temps. Mainly dry weather looks to dominate the majority of the corn belt for most of this week and then by Friday and Saturday, the same system that is indicated to bring a blizzard to the Dakotas will bring rains of .40-1”, with areas of 1”+ to the western 2/3 of the Midwest. Eastern IN/MI and most of OH should see less than .50” Drier weather looks to build back in for most of next week. Temps will run above average across all of the region through Friday and then fall to below average. Temps look to drop into the 30-34 degree range in most of MN, the northern ½ of IA and NW ½ of WI by Monday morning of next week. Average precip and temps are expected for the corn belt in the 11-16 day period. Argentina and southern Brazil are expected to see minimal rains over the next 5 days, while .30-1” looks to fall across around 70% of the Brazilian growing regions from Parana north. The 6-10 day period sees rains of .50-1.5”+ in most of the Argentine and southern Brazilian growing regions, with things mainly dry north of Parana in Brazil.