-USDA reports today at 11:00 AM CT – trade estimate summary included
-Corn/soybean conditions improved, spring wheat declines again
-Oilseed Crushings report tomorrow
-First notice day July deliveries mostly as expected
-Ridging in extended forecasts of increasing focus
USDA’s Grain Stocks and Acreage reports will be out today at 11.00 AM CT. Our pre-report commentary/analysis can be found on Market Insights at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/40539. A summary of the average trade estimates in on the following page. Grain markets will have an early close on Thursday at 12:05 PM CT and be closed on Friday for the Independence Day holiday. Focus is increasingly on the extended weather guidance showing a decent period of ridging across the belt.
Tomorrow afternoon, USDA will release the monthly Oilseed Crushings report. The average trade estimate of U.S. soybean crush in May is 180.7 million bushels (180.0-182.0 million range of ideas) vs 183.4 million in April and 165.4 million last year. The average estimate reflects U.S. total crush 6.6% above NOPA-member crush for the month, which is right in line with the “typical” difference between the two of late. If accurate, marketing year-todate crush would reach 1.629 billion bushels vs 1.57 billion last year, leaving June-Aug crush needing to total 511 million bushels vs last year’s 515 million in order to reach the USDA’s 2.140 billion bushel annual estimate. July and August crush last year were both records, which is debatable for a
repeat this year given the pullback in crush margins. The average estimate of end May U.S. soybean oil stocks is 2.372 billion pounds (2.250-2.450 billion range), which would reflect total U.S. stocks 26.2% above NOPA-member stocks of 1.880 billion pounds, which is larger than the 16.8-23.7% deviations seen over the last five months. From this perspective, if there is a bit of a bias, it could be for stocks to come in a bit below expectations based on the recent relationship between NOPA and U.S. total numbers.
U.S. corn and soybean crop conditions both improved 1% in good/excellent last week, as expected, and remain historically solid. Both are above the most-recent 5-year and 10-year averages, while soybean conditions are the 3rd best since 2003 (slightly below 2018 and 2014), while corn conditions are the 4th best since 2007 (below only 2018, 2016, 2014). Spring wheat conditions, on the other hand, took another hit, falling 6% g/e last week to 69% and are below the last two years and are only better than 2017’s extremely poor conditions since 2006. Winter wheat harvest is now 41% complete vs 29% last week, 26% last year and 41% average.
A Russian daily newspaper cited the chairman of the Union of Grain Exporters as saying the meeting between government officials and various grain exporters in mid-June included a possibility Russia will not implement a grain export quota for 2020/21 if the total grain crop is above 125 MMT and export potential is at least 45 MMT. The last official estimate of this year’s total grain crop was 122.5 MMT two weeks ago, but production ideas started moving higher about a month ago on the return of beneficial rains.
Malaysian palm oil/product exports in June are estimated around 1.62 MMT, up solidly from 1.26 MMT in May and 1.383 MMT last year June.
Indonesia will leave the crude palm oil export tax at zero in July for the 4th consecutive month as the CPO reference price of $622.47/tonne remains well below the $750/tonne threshold which triggers a tax.
Thailand tendered for 237k tonnes of optional-origin feed wheat, with offers due by tomorrow. South Korea bought 60k tonnes of feed wheat following their recent tender at $216.05/tonne c&f for Nov 30 arrival.
First notice day July deliveries were mostly minimal as expected with no corn or soybean deliveries posted and 151 contracts of CBOT wheat put out. Wire services indicated expectations on CBOT wheat deliveries were 0-200 contracts, with most at zero, while ideas on corn and soybean deliveries were 0-400 contracts and 0-250 contracts, respectively, leaning towards zero as well. Soybean meal saw 10 contracts delivered (0-300 expected), while soybean oil was the exception with heavy deliveries of 2,402 contracts (1,017 ADM) vs 600-3,500 expected. There were no KCBT deliveries issued (0-
400 expected), while MPLS wheat saw 487 contracts posted (Wells Fargo) vs ideas of 200-800. The last trading days for those having deliveries were: CBOT wheat 6/2/20, SBM 4/07/20, SBO 6/24/20, MPLS wheat 6/25/20.
Rains fell across portions of the Midwest yesterday. Totals were heaviest across the eastern 2/3 of MN, where .75-1.35” was common and isolated to 2”. Totals of around .25-.85” fell across E MO into WI, northeast IL, NW IN and the southern section of IL, IN. Waves of showers and thunderstorms look to occur for another 24-36 hours and will bring combined totals of .75-1.5”, with areas of 1.5”+, to the eastern 1/3 to ½ of IA, the eastern ½ of MO, SW WI, the western ½ of IL and into the SW 1/3 of IN. Totals elsewhere across the region look to be under .30”. The 6-10 day outlook continues to show ridging to build in and bring limited rains to the heart of the region. There will be rains activity across the northern side of the ridge, with models in better agreement for most of the activity to favor MN and WI, as well as down across the OH River Valley. Early estimates on totals in MN and WI are running in the .75-1.25” +. Totals in the OH River Valley are indicated to be in the .50-1” range. Rains elsewhere in the Midwest would be generally less than .50” given the current model guidance. The ridging continues during the 11-16 day period and while the amplification of the ridge does not look to be high, it will still be capable of bringing below average rainfall to a good portion of the Midwest. Temps look to run above average, although widespread severe heat (95 deg. F) would not occur, just pockets of it from time to time.