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-No confirmation of Friday’s rumored Chinese U.S. corn purchase
-China issues GMO certificates for domestic corn/soybean cultivation
-Palm oil prices seen nearly 20% higher in 2020
-Brazil soybean/1st corn crop harvests underway
-Russian wheat prices hit highest of season

Due to yesterday’s Martin Luther King, Jr. holiday, this week’s regular data releases will all be delayed by one day. Accordingly, Export Inspections will be out later this morning, with the EIA’s weekly ethanol/petroleum data out Thursday and Export Sales on Friday. CFTC data will still be out Friday, as usual.

 China’s ag ministry took one of the final steps necessary to allow domestic cultivation of GMO corn and soybeans in officially issuing biosafety certificates for two corn varieties and one soybean variety following a 30-day public comment period after announcing plans to do so in December. The certificates are valid for five years, which should allow for the advancement of GMO cultivation and improve yields moving forward. The corn traits approved provide resistance to insects and herbicides, which will help combat the recent increase in fall armyworm damage.

ï‚· A wire service poll of palm oil market analysts/participants showed expectations for benchmark Malaysian palm oil futures to average 2,650 ringgit/tonne ($651) in 2020, 18% above the 2019 average of 2,248 ringgit/tonne ($543), given expectations for nearly flat palm oil production in the coming year and higher domestic biodiesel usage in Malaysia and Indonesia. The survey showed average expectations for Malaysian palm oil production to tick marginally higher to 19.93 MMT in 2020 from 19.86 MMT last year, with Indonesian production seen at 45.75 MMT vs 45.5 MMT in 2019.

 Brazil’s soybean crop is 2% harvested according to Safras & Mercado and, while below last year’s earlier-than-usual start in which 5% was already harvested, is in line with average. Mato Grosso is 5% harvested, in line with average, but below last year’s 10%, while Parana is 1% harvested vs 3% average and 13% last year. Brazil’s 1st corn crop harvest is underway at 5% complete vs 4% last year and 3% average. With the soybean harvest just getting underway, so is planting of the 2nd corn crop (safrinha) at just 1% complete, which is notably slower than last year’s record-fast planting of 11%, while the most-recent 5-year average is 5%, being influenced by the fast planting last year and in 2017.

ï‚· There were no USDA sales announcements this morning. There was talk on Friday China was buying U.S. corn, which spurred the solid price gains later in the session, but there has not been any confirmation of such purchases yet.

ï‚· Russian wheat prices continue to move higher, rising $4/tonne last week to $226/tonne fob for 12.5% protein Black Sea shipment according to SovEcon. This reflects the highest price for the 2019/20 marketing year so far, which began July1.

ï‚· A South Korean feedmill bought a cargo of South American corn on Friday at $217.90/tonne c&f for April 10 shipment.

ï‚· Syria canceled their tender for 200k tonnes of Russian wheat and also made no purchases in their previous tender which closed December 18.

ï‚· Algeria tendered for an unspecified amount of wheat for Feb/March shipment depending on source. In their last tender in early December, Algeria bought 500k tonnes at $227-$228/tonne c&f in what was believed to be mostly French, but possibly some Argentine, origin.

 Pakistan approved the import of 300k tonnes of wheat to help with a current flour shortage amid last year’s mediocre crop and rising overall demand. Pakistan has not imported wheat in material quantities for five years.

Weather Dry weather dominated the majority of the Argentine growing regions over the weekend and then on Monday a front brought rains of .50-1†to most of Buenos Aries. Rains of .20-.60†will finish up across the Argentine growing regions in the next 24 hours or so, with coverage of around 70%. There looks to be a bit of a bias to the rains, with the best coverage occurring north of Buenos Aries and La Pampa. The next rains are then expected early next week with .40-1†expected for most of Santa Fe, Entre Rios and Corrientes, with other areas mainly dry for the weekend and early next week. Rains of .50-1.5†fell across the Brazilian growing regions from northern sections of MGDS and Sao Paulo north, while Monday saw rains of .50-1†across most of RGDS. Over the next five days, .50-1.5†is expected from Parana north, with .25-.75†from Parana south today/tomorrow. In the 6- 10 day period, rains of 1-2†are expected from northern MGDS/Sao Paulo, with .30-1†expected elsewhere.

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