-Trade deal rhetoric takes turn for the worse
-Brazilian soybean crop ideas tightly grouped for solid increase from last year
-Argentine forecast mostly dry over coming 10 days
-Russian wheat dominates in latest Egyptian tender
A wire service poll of Brazilian ag consultants/analysts indicated average expectations for this year’s Brazilian soybean crop at 122.7 MMT, with ideas ranging from 120.7-126.0 MMT, reflecting a solid increase from last year’s 115.0 MMT crop. USDA last estimated the crop at 123.0 MMT. CONAB last estimated the crop at 120.9 MMT, with their next update set to be released December 10.
President Trump acknowledged his recent signing of the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act, providing the authorization to sanction China over human rights violations in Hong Kong, could negatively impact the ability to seal a trade deal with China stating, “It doesn’t make it better.” Phase One trade deal negotiations continue ahead of the next round of import tariffs set to go into effect December 15, but Trump commented overnight a trade deal may have to wait until after the 2020 election. Separately, but relatedly, Trump unexpectedly re-instituted import tariffs on Brazilian and Argentinian steel and aluminum imports, effective immediately, which some see as potentially strengthening ties between China and Brazil and further hurting U.S. soybean export recovery prospects to China.
Yesterday afternoon’s USDA Oilseed Crushings report showed slightly higher than expected October soybean crush, but also higher than expected end October soybean oil stocks. Details can be found in our Market Insights post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/38199.
U.S. corn harvest is now 89% complete, in line with expectations, with significant delays continuing across the north with ND just 36% complete vs 95% avg, WI 66% vs 91% avg, MI 66% vs 89% ag and SD 80% vs 98% avg. Harvest from IA through OH is 90-93% complete. USDA will update corn harvest progress again next Monday. Soybean harvest is 96% complete, with delays of note including WI at 86% vs 99% avg, MI 85% vs 97% avg and ND 92% vs 99% avg. Most other major corn belt state harvests are 95-100% complete. USDA’s soybean harvest progress updates are done for the year.
A South Korean feedmill passed on a tender for 60k tonnes of optional origin soybean meal for July 2020 arrival citing offer prices being too high.
After the close yesterday, Egypt tendered for an unspecified amount of optional-origin wheat for Jan 21-31 shipment. The four lowest offers were all Russian wheat ranging from $235.17-$236.48/tonne c&f, followed by Ukrainian at $236.70/tonne c&f.
Algeria tendered for an unspecified amount of optional-origin wheat for Feb shipment (Jan if South American), with offers due by tomorrow. Algeria bought roughly 500k tonnes of wheat in their November tender.
Weather Rains of .20-.60” fell across the Brazilian growing states of Mato Grosso, MGDS, Goias and Minas Gerais yesterday with coverage in these areas around 55%. The rest of the Brazilian growing regions were mainly dry. Rains of .40-1”+ are expected for most of the Brazilian growing regions north of Parana in the next 5 days. Some 1”+ totals are also likely, especially in Minas Gerais and Goias. Off and on showers and thunderstorms look to bring rains of .40-1” to northern RGDS and most of Santa Catarina and Parana today through Thursday. Rains of 1-2” look to continue to fall from hit and miss tropical showers and thunderstorms in northern sections of MGDS and Sao Paulo north into Mato Grosso, Goias and Minas Gerais in the 6-10 day period with mainly dry conditions south. In Argentina, rains of .30-.80” fell across most of La Pampa and the SW ½ of Buenos Aries yesterday, with totals of less than .25” in Santa Fe and northern Entre Rios. Northern La Pampa and NE Buenos Aries are expected to see .25-.75” today. Mostly dry conditions are expected over the coming 10 days with totals of less than .25” and 65% coverage expected.