-Huge soybean/corn Export Sales again
-U.S. moves to block some Malaysian palm oil imports
-USDA Oilseeds Crushing and Grain Crushing reports this afternoon
-Favorable weather for U.S. harvest next week
-USDA reports soybeans sold to Egypt
The USDA’s monthly Oilseeds Crushings and Grain Crushings reports, providing data for the month of August, will be out this afternoon. We have not seen wire service stories regarding trade ideas, but based on the recent relationship between NOPA and U.S.-wide numbers, August soybean crush would be implied around 175.8 million bushels vs 184.5 million in July and 177.3 million last year, while end August soybean oil stocks would be implied around 1.975 billion pounds vs 2.124 billion in July and 1.806 billion last year.
USDA announced the sale of 120k tonnes of soybeans to Egypt for 2020/21 delivery this morning.
The U.S. announced it will block palm oil/product imports from Malaysia’s FGV Holdings, one of the country’s largest palm oil producers and supplier to major companies such as Proctor & Gamble, Nestle, Unilever and L’Oreal, due to forced labor allegations and other various labor abuses at the company. Another large palm oil supplier may be in the U.S.’ sights as well.
The USDA ag attaché in Algeria sees their 2020/21 (July-June) wheat imports at 5.0 MMT, sharply below USDA’s official estimate of 7.5 MMT and down from last year’s 6.5 MMT given the expected considerable drop in imports from France to potentially only 1.5-2.0 MMT from over 5.0 MMT last year as a result of France’s poor crop this year. While Algeria has made moves to allow imports from Black Sea origins, the attaché feels their balance sheet is in a position to handle lower imports rather than pay up for Black Sea wheat this year.
Iran is believed to have bought 140-300k tonnes of corn and 100-140k tonnes of soybean meal as a result of their recent tender for 200k tonnes of each for Oct-Dec shipment. The corn is expected to be sourced from Brazil and/or Ukraine, while the soybean meal from South America.
Please see our Market Insights post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/41622 details on today’s USDA Export Sales report.
U.S. soybean sales were huge again at 2.591 MMT (95.2 million bushels), marginally eclipsing the top of market expectations of 1.5-2.5 MMT and were the 4th consecutive week of sales above 90 million bushels. This week’s activity included net sales to China of 1.1 MMT and at least 827k tonnes to unknown.
U.S. corn sales last week were very strong at 2.027 MMT (79.8 mil bu), well above market expectations of 800k-1.4 MMT and kept the average weekly sales through the first four weeks of 2020/21 at an exceptionally impressive 74.8 million bushels/week.
U.S. wheat sales last week of 506k tonnes (18.6 mil bu), topped the range of market ideas of 200-500k tonnes, rose from the previous week’s 12.9 million bushels and were the largest in four weeks.
New crop soybean meal sales were strong at 523k tonnes, beating expectations of 150-400k tonnes, but new crop soybean oil sales were minimal, though, at only 0.6k tonnes vs expectations of 0-30k tonnes.
Cold air aloft will support hit and miss showers across most of MN, WI , MI, NE IA and the northern sections of IL, IN and OH through tonight. Additional totals with that shower activity look to be under .20”. Tomorrow looks to be mainly dry and then by Saturday into Sunday, showers will bring totals of generally less than .35” to most of the region, with .30-.80” in S. WI and most of MI. Most of next week looks dry.
The Brazilian growing regions look to see rains of .50-1”+ fall in most of RGDS in both in the next 5 days as well as in the 6-10 day, with little in the way of rain see for the rest of their growing regions. The Argentine growing regions look to see rains of .25-.75” fall with coverage of around 70% in the next 5 days. The 6-10 day period sees totals of generally less than .30” to fall in most areas, with some .30-.80” amounts possible in W. B.A. and La Pampa.