-Argentine grain flow to ports improving
-Russia to begin intervention grain sales
-Brazil March soybean exports record for the month
-Egypt tenders for wheat, but cancels
-Corn/soybean export sales respectable, wheat dismal
ï‚· Argentina’s export chamber CIARA-CEC said truck shipments of grains to export hubs have improved substantially as the week progressed after considerable slowdowns were prompted by local governments issuing restrictions to slow the spread of coronavirus. The federal government stepped in with guidance to allow grain transportation to continue. The chamber said flows into export hubs were reduced by 40% earlier in the week, but have again returned mostly to normal and ports “are receiving a large and reasonable volume of grains.â€
ï‚· Russia will begin intervention sales of state grain reserves to the domestic market on April 13. They will make available up to 1.5 MMT of total reserves of 1.8 MMT.
ï‚· Brazil reported March soybean exports were 11.6 MMT, easily a record for the month and up from 8.5 MMT last year and 5.1 MMT in February. Yesterday, though, the Brazilian exporter association, Anec, said they saw exports possibly has high as 13.1 MMT for the month. March corn exports were 454k tonnes vs 827k last year and 346k in February.
ï‚· China’s commerce ministry said the country’s supply of “grains†is more than sufficient for domestic needs and there are no risks to shortages even if imports are not allowed. It was stated that stocks of wheat, corn and rice at the end of 2019 were more than 280 MMT vs annual average consumption of 200+ MMT. Obviously the key fact in this is the grain specific component – not oilseeds. Additionally, they do not expected the coronavirus pandemic to materially impact grain production this year stating a bumper crop in 2020 is a “high-probability event.â€
ï‚· Egypt tendered for an unspecified amount of wheat yesterday afternoon, but quickly thereafter canceled it without providing a reason. In the tender, though, they issued additional rules of exporters of optional-origin supplies being required to replace contracted cargoes in the event coronavirus restrictions blocked the ability to ship and also absorb any additional freight costs that may be involved.
 Ukraine’s total grain exports through the first nine months of 2019/20 were a record 46.0 MMT vs 37.6 MMT during the same period last year, and included 17.9 MMT wheat, 23.3 MMT corn and 4.3 MMT barley. The grain traders union, UGA, agreed with the economic minister to limit wheat exports to a marketing year total of 20.2 MMT, which would allow for April-June exports of 2.3 MMT.
 Ukraine’s UGA also raised their early ideas on the country’s 2020/21 corn crop to 36.8 MMT from 34.3 MMT, prompting an increase in export expectations to 30.0 MMT from 27.5 MMT previously. For comparison, USDA estimates this year’s, 2019/20, crop at 35.8 MMT and exports at 32.0 MMT. UGA left their 2020/21 wheat crop and export ideas unchanged at 25.8 MMT and 18.0 MMT, respectively, and compare USDA’s 2019/20 estimates of 29.0 MMT and 20.5 MMT.
ï‚· Please see our Market Insights post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/39627 details on the USDA Export Sales report.
ï‚· U.S. corn sales were 1.075 MMT (42.3 million bushel), within market expectations of 700k-1.2 MMT and while down from last week’s very strong 71.4 million bushels, they were double year ago same-week sales of 21.1 million and, again, were considerably better than the average “needed” sales pace of roughly 18.8 million bushels/week.
ï‚· U.S. soybean sales of 958k tonnes (35.2 million bushels) were above market expectations of 375-900k tonnes and just surpassing the previous week’s 33.2 million to be the highest of the last 15 weeks.
ï‚· U.S. wheat sales last week were dismal at just 73k tonnes (2.7 million bushels), a marketing year low and below market expectations of 100-500k tonnes.
ï‚· U.S. soybean meal sales of 125k tonnes were in the lower portion of market expectations of 100-350k tonnes, but still met the roughly 88k tonnes/week average “needed” pace in order to reach the USDA’s export projection. Soybean oil sales were very strong at 67.0k tonnes, beating market expectations of 8-40k tonnes and setting a new marketing year high for the 2nd consecutive week.
Weather A cold front will bring rains of .30-.80†to the Delta tomorrow and Saturday. More rains are seen for Monday, with another .30-.80†likely. The 6-10 day sees quiet weather to set up shop from Tuesday through Thursday and then rains of .50-1â€+ to fall by later Friday into Saturday. Rains of .30-1†are expected for eastern ½ of KS, OK and TX tomorrow with totals in the western under .20â€. Mostly dry conditions are expected until next Friday/Saturday with .30-.80†seen for the eastern ½ of KS, OK and TX and .25†or less in the west. By later today and into tomorrow, a cold front will bring rains of .50-1†to around 75% of MN, IA and MO, as well as northern IL and southern WI. The rains will taper off to the .35†range or less in the rest of the region for later Saturday and Sunday. The next rains of .50-1â€+ are expected for most areas by later Friday and Saturday of next week.