-USDA 2020/21 acreage ideas in line with expectations, but possibly leave room for more
-EU wheat crop seen down solidly from last year/corn higher
-Cattle on Feed report Friday
-Paraguay soybean crop up solidly
-Malaysia launches B20 biodiesel program
This week’s EIA ethanol/energy reports will be out today, while Export Sales will be out tomorrow morning.
 There weren’t any major surprises in the initial 2020 U.S. acreage ideas presented at the USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum this morning. Corn acres were put at 94.0 million vs the average traded estimate of 93.6 million and 89.7 million last year, soybeans at 85.0 million vs the average estimate of 85.0 million and last year’s 76.1 million, and all wheat acres at 45.0 million vs the average estimate of 45.2 million and last year’s 45.2 million. Their all wheat estimate implied ideas of total spring wheat area (other spring + durum) at 14.2 million acres vs last year’s 14.0 million based on the January Winter Wheat Seedings report. USDA’s look at the 2020/21 balance sheets will be provided at the Forum first thing tomorrow morning. While each of the individual crop acreage ideas were in line with “market expectations,†we would point out the USDA’s total combined major crop acreage estimate of 250.7 million acres is below every year’s total acreage over the last 7 years from 2012-2018, obviously excluding last year’s major issues. During that 7-year period, major crop acres totaled 252.1-257.9 million acres, 1.4-7.2 million acres more than today’s USDA initial view of 2020/21 acres, clearly leaving room for additional acres relative to today’s estimates. USDA sees the 2020/21 average corn farm price at $3.60/bushel vs $3.85 for 2019/20, soybeans at $8.80 vs $8.75 this year and wheat at $4.90 vs $4.55 this year. More details on this morning’s acreage numbers, including a look at the historical difference from the February estimates to final, as well as the USDA’s early cash price ideas for 2020/21 can be found in our Market Insights post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/39055.
 Paraguay said this year’s soybean crop could exceed 10.0 MMT vs last year’s 8.5 MMT with harvest roughly halfway complete at this time.
 Headline comments from the USDA Ag Outlook Forum indicated USDA sees China’s total hog production in 2019 declined 195 million head from 2018, with another 80 million head reduction expected in 2020.
 Coceral sees the 2020/21 EU soft wheat crop declining to 137.9 MMT from 145.7 MMT last year, while EU corn production is seen rising to 65.0 MMT vs 61.0 MMT last year. Wheat production is seen down solidly due to last fall’s heavy rains negatively impacting planting.
ï‚· India issued import licenses for 1.1 MMT of refined palmolein from Indonesia, an unexpected move and prompted a recovery in Malaysian palm oil prices overnight. While the licenses are specifically for Indonesian-origin refined oil, Malaysian futures still found support in the change in Indian policy from just a month ago in which they put imports of palm oil/palmolein on a list of restricted items.
ï‚· Friday afternoon, USDA will release the monthly Cattle on Feed report. The average estimate of U.S. cattle on feed as of February 1 is estimated at 102.4% of last year (101.8-103.0 range of ideas) and compares to Jan 1 which was 102.3. January placements are estimated at 101.4% of last year (97.8-103.5 range of ideas) vs 103.5 in Dec, while January marketings are estimated at 100.7% of last year (97.6-101.6 range) vs 105.2 in December.
ï‚· Saudi Arabia tendered for 715k tonnes of wheat in 12 shipments for April-June delivery periods, with offers due by tomorrow. Saudi Arabia bought 605k tonnes of wheat for Feb-March shipment in late October.
ï‚· Malaysia officially launched their B20 biodiesel blending program for the transportation sector, which is expected to be fully implemented by mid-2021 and consume an additional 534k tonnes of palm oil annually relative to the B10 blending mandate previously in place.