-Export Sales disappointing for soybeans, corn, wheat
-Trade estimate summary for December 10 USDA report
-Dec Russian wheat exports could be 5-year low
-USDA reports modest old/new crop soybean sales
-Brazil continues to see excellent rains, Argentina less so
The USDA’s monthly WASDE report will be out next Tuesday, December 10. USDA does not update U.S. grain/oilseed crop production estimates in the December report so this month’s report will be demand-side focused. A summary of trade estimates is on the following page. Our pre-report commentary will be posted on Market Insights later today.
The Malaysian Palm Oil Board will release its monthly report on December 10, with the average estimate of end November palm oil stocks at 2.215 MMT (2.070-2.294 MMT range of ideas) and compares to October stocks of 2.348 MMT and last year’s Nov stocks of 3.007 MMT. The average estimate reflects expectations for stocks to be the lowest since July 2018. The average estimate of November Malaysian palm oil production is 1.610 MMT (1.570-1.760 MMT range) vs 1.796 MMT in October and 1.845 MMT last year, while November palm oil exports are estimated at 1.557 MMT (1.420-1.650 MMT range) vs 1.642 MMT in October and 1.375 MMT last year.
Argentine farmer selling of corn, soybeans and wheat has been solid over the last week ahead of expected export tax increases with the new president taking office tomorrow.
A Russian bulk grain handler expects the country’s wheat exports in December to be roughly 2.2 MMT vs last year’s 3.52 MMT and November exports of 2.6 MMT (SovEcon estimate). If accurate, Dec exports would be the lowest for the month in five years.
South Korea passed on a tender for 55k tonnes of optional-origin corn for March 10 arrival with the lowest offer price of $210.73/tonne c&f cited as being too high.
Algeria is believed to have bought around 500k tonnes of wheat following its recent tender, with prices thought to be mostly $227-$228/tonne c&f and expected to be primarily French origin, with a small portion possibly Argentinian, as well. Prices paid were up modestly from their previous purchase in mid-November at $223-$224/tonne.
USDA reported the sale of 245k tonnes of soybeans to unknown this morning, with 120k tonnes being old crop 2019/20 and 125k tonnes for 2020/21 delivery.
Please see our Market Insights post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/38244 for details on the USDA Export Sales report.
U.S. soybean sales were a 6-week low at 684k tonnes (25.1 million bushels), coming in below market expectations of 700k-1.3 MMT and were substantially below average sales of the previous four weeks of 55.0 million bushels/week. Net sales to China last week were just 112k tonnes.
U.S. corn sales last week of 546k tonnes (21.5 mil bu) were a 4-week low and were at the bottom end of market expectations of 500-900k tonnes, while being less than half of last year’s same-week sales of 46.3 million bushels.
U.S. wheat sales last week were just 228k tonnes (8.4 million bushels), a 24-week low and 2nd lowest of the first half of the 2019/20 marketing year so far, while coming in below market expectations of 300-700k tonnes.
U.S. soybean meal sales of 181k tonnes were within market expectations of 100-300k tonnes, as were soybean oil sales of 10.8k (5-25k expected).
Weather Brazil saw rains of .30-1”, with areas of 1”+, in widespread fashion (90%) across northern RGDS into most of Santa Catarina and Parana in the past 24 hours. Similar amounts fell to the north of Parana, with coverage of around 55%. Most areas from Parana north are expected to see .50- 1.5”+ amounts over the next 5 days, with an additional 1-2” in the same areas in the 6-10 day period and .40-1” expected in RGDS, SC and Parana at the end of next week. In Argentina, rains of .30-.80” fell across the southern 1/3rd of Santa Fe and Entre Rios yesterday, with conditions mainly dry elsewhere. The next 5 days look dry across Argentina, with the next rains of .40-1”+ expected for the northern ½ of Santa Fe, Entre Rios and into most of Corrientes by Friday of next week.