-Soybeans rally on expected new Chinese tariff-free import allocation
-Ukraine corn production estimate modestly down from last year
-U.S. soybean harvest makes impressive progress – corn harvest takes backseat
-South American precip forecast remains favorable
 Soybeans rallied overnight on ideas China has issued additional tariff-free soybean import allocations, with most ideas appearing to be for 10 MMT in this round. Recent Chinese purchases of Brazilian soybeans appear to have been bracketed by prompt Nov dates and for the new crop supplies March forward. This would leave a window of likely/expected purchases of U.S. supplies for Nov-Mar shipment, which would be a typical shipping pattern for U.S. supplies to China. They currently have a total of 5.6 MMT of U.S. soybeans on the books (4.6 MMT unshipped), while the U.S. exported 13.3 MMT of soybeans to China during the 2018/19 marketing year. Accordingly, China will still need to buy around 7.7 MMT to reach last year’s imports and, from the sounds of it, this latest round of allocations should allow that to be achieved or possibly/likely exceeded a bit. With the easing of trade tensions, at least regarding the ag space, China buying U.S. soybeans at least at last year’s level has been widely anticipated. It’s just a matter of whether their purchases end up moving materially above 2018/19’s 13.3 MMT as the USDA’s current 1.775 billion bushel total soybean export projection reflects slightly larger exports than last year’s 1.748 billion, essentially expecting at least the same level of exports to China in 2019/20 as last year. There are some ideas China may be allocating some level of tariff-free imports for U.S. corn, wheat, sorghum and DDGs, as well.  Ukraine said this year’s wheat crop was 28.1 MMT vs last year’s 24.6 MMT, reflecting a 3.5 MMT increase. The USDA’s estimates of Ukrainian production are larger given their inclusion of Crimean Peninsula production, but their estimated 3.6 MMT increase from last year is in line with Ukraine’s official ideas. However, their estimate of the corn crop at 32.8 MMT reflects an estimated 3.0 MMT decline from last year, while the USDA is estimating corn production essentially unchanged from 2018/19. Most ideas on this year’s Ukrainian corn crop have been rather favorable, so the estimated decline is a bit unexpected. Ukraine put this year’s barley crop at 8.9 MMT vs 7.3 MMT last year.
 Ukraine wheat planting is running a bit behind last year amid drier-than-desired conditions in some locations, with 5.5 million hectares (13.6 mil acres) planted so far vs 5.8 mil hectares (14.3 mil acres) at this time last year. Ukraine’s state meteorological agency said the dryness could result in a bit of a decline in total winter grain area from last year.
ï‚· Ethiopia pushed back the offer deadline for their recent tender for 400k tonnes of wheat to November 5 from October 23.
 US soybean harvest made strong gains last week, jumping to 46% complete (42% expected) from 26% last week and only slhgtly behind last year’s 51%, but still well behind 64% average. ND is just 20% harvested (16% las week) vs 81% average, SD 33% (13% last week) vs 76% avg and MN 42% (19% last week) 81% avg. US corn harvest is 30% complete (34% expected), advancing modestly from 22% last week as the focus clearly was on soybeans, and compares to 48% last year and 47% average. ND is 4% harvested (1% last week) vs 24% avg, SD 9% (5% last week) vs 29% avg and MN 11% (5% last week) and 35% avg. US winter wheat planting remains uneventful, advancing to 77% complete from 65% last week and compares to 71% last year/75% average. For full details on yesterday’s Crop Progress report, see out post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/37768.
Weather Scattered, light rains are expected across MN, WI and MI today and then mostly dry conditions are expected for the corn belt into the weekend. The models remain strongly separated in their ideas for next week, though, with the European model indicating a system to bring rains of .50-1†to all but the NW 2/3 of MO by Saturday night and Sunday, with another system to bring rains of .20-.80â€+ to most of MN, IA and MO by the middle of next week and a third to bring totals of .50-1â€+ to MO, IL, IN, MI and OH by Thursday of next week. Combined totals from the European from late Saturday through Thursday of next week are for 1-3†in most of MO, IL, IN and OH, with .50-1â€+ in IA, WI and MI. On the other hand, the GFS only sees a few light and spotty showers to fall in MO and most areas east of the MS River, but most totals look to be under .35â€. Rains of .50-1.5â€+ will fall across the northern Brazilian states of Mato Grosso, Goias and Minas Gerais, as well as into most of the Argentine growing regions in the next 5 days. Totals in the rest of the Brazilian growing regions look to be under .35†in the next 5 days. The 6-10 day period sees rains of .50-1.5â€+ to fall in most of the Brazilian growing regions, with totals of .35-1†in northern ½ of the Argentine growing regions and .25-.75†in the southern Brazilian growing regions.