-Chinese trade optimism supports ags overnight
-China large-scale hog operations reportedly showing signs of recovery
-Move to ban hog growth hormone in the U.S. takes another step forward with Chinese demand eyed
-USDA to resurvey corn/soybean harvested area for November report
-EU wheat crop/export estimates raised further
Due to Monday’s holiday, the EIA’s weekly ethanol data will be out later this morning, while Export Sales will be released tomorrow.
Ag markets were firm overnight following Bloomberg headlines supportive of Chinese demand ideas, indicating China will increase U.S. farm product purchases “according to domestic needs,” with teams working on communication of the text of a phase one trade agreement with the U.S. An official with China’s Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau said hog inventories at the country’s large-scale operations (5,000+ head slaughter annually) have begun to rebound, estimated at 44.5 million head at the end of September, up 0.6% from August, while sow inventories were up 3.7% in September to 6.1 million head. He also said feed production for the hog industry was up 10% in September from August levels, as well. While he also said Chinese hog numbers could return to normal levels in 2020, there is widespread dissent regarding that optimism as new cases continue to be reported, restarting costs are extremely high and reinfection of attempted restocked operations has not been uncommon.
Tyson Foods announced they will ban the use of the growth hormone ractopamine in hogs they purchase beginning in February 2020 as they aim to position for increased demand from China for imported pork supplies. China bans ractopamine domestically, as well as in all imported supplies, so the move is necessary for any U.S. entities wishing to export pork supplies to China. Earlier in the month, JBS USA (Swift brand) also announced they will eliminate the use of the growth hormone, while Smithfield does not use ractopamine in its hog production.
USDA announced they will re-survey farmers in North Dakota and Minnesota for any expected changes to corn and soybean harvested area as a result of the recent snowstorm. Any necessary revisions will be included in the November 8 Crop Production report.
Strategie Grains further raised their estimate of this year’s EU soft wheat crop to 145.5 MMT from 144.5 MMT previously, up sharply from last year’s 127.1 MMT and above 17/18’s 142.1 MMT crop. Along with the production increase, they also further raised their estimate of 2019/20 EU soft wheat exports to 27.3 MMT from 25.7 MMT last month and now reflects a 5.4 MMT increase from their initial estimate in July. They slightly lowered their EU corn crop estimate to 63.6 MMT from 63.8 MMT previously (61.8 MMT last year), but raised the barley crop to 61.7 MMT from 61.0 MMT previously (55.7 MMT last year). Their early ideas on EU soft wheat planted area for the 2020/21 crop are unchanged from this year, while next year’s EU corn planted area is expected to rise 2%.
Indonesian palm oil/product exports in August of 2.53 MMT were little-changed from 2.51 MMT in July, but solidly below last year’s August exports of 2.99 MMT. Jan-Aug total exports of 20.3 MMT compare to 20.0 MMT last year during the same period. With an increase in palm oil production in August, the country’s stocks at the end of August hit the highest level of 2019 at 3.8 MMT.
APK-Inform sees this year’s Ukrainian sunflower seed crop potentially reaching a new record of 15.4 MMT, slightly above last year’s current record crop of 15.2 MMT.
Saudi Arabia tendered for 595k tonnes of wheat for Feb-March delivery with offers due by Friday.
Weather Conditions look to be mainly dry for the rest of the week, with a weak front to bring generally less than .30” and coverage of around 60% by Saturday. Sunday looks to be dry in most of the region, with another front to arrive in the west early Monday and then work through the region for Monday and Tuesday with general ideas for .30-1” in all but western IA and SE MN. Things then look to quiet back or for a few days, with rains seen for MN and then down into areas SE of a line from around St Louis to Cleveland by the very end of next week. The rains are over for most of the Argentine growing for the next week to possibly 10 days, while totals of .50-1”+ will fall in most of the Brazilian growing regions, with the exceptions of Minas Gerais, And possibly Goias and Sao Paulo in the next 5 days. The 6-10 day period sees rains of .50-1.5”+ to fall in the northern Brazilian growing states of Mato Grosso, Goias and Minas Gerais, with things mainly dry elsewhere.