-Enthusiastic sentiment eases over Phase 1 trade deal ideas
-Chinese pork price increase escalating
-Argentina sees good rains, more to come – Brazilian rains next week
-NOPA crush, Export Inspections, Crop Progress out today
-USDA reports modest soybean sales to unknown
The USDA’s Export Inspections and Crop Progress reports will be out today, as will NOPA’s monthly soybean crush report. EIA ethanol data will be out on Thursday, while Export Sales will be released Friday.
Plenty of rhetoric has developed in recent days of a tempering of enthusiasm regarding the Phase 1 trade “deal.” Chinese media reportedly has not officially said anything about the agreement to buy $40-$50 billion in U.S. ag products, while the China Daily overnight cited the lack of anything yet being put down on paper as leaving plenty of unknowns up in the air. Additionally, U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said the deal really isn’t a true deal yet as, “There are still some issues that need to be worked out in wording, but I would say we have every expectation that phase one will close.” Also, keep in mind China’s import tariffs on U.S. ag products still remain in place so imports from the U.S. remain generally uncompetitive with global values outside of specific amounts granted by the Chinese government as being tariff-free or bought/imported directly by Chinese state-owned agencies. As long as the punitive tariffs remain in place, there is very little opportunity for exports beyond what is directly allowed/ordered by Chinese officials. Reportedly, additional high-level talks are expected to continue next week via phone in an effort to square up details prior the planned mid-November meeting between the U.S. and Chinese presidents, at which time the goal is to actually have something signed for the phase one deal.
Chinese pork prices continue to rise sharply, jumping 20% in September alone and up 69% from year ago levels.
India’s total vegoil imports in September were 1.3 MMT, 13% below year ago levels, with palm oil accounting for 880k tonnes and soybean oil 248k tonnes.
The Czech Republic’s wheat crop estimate ticked higher to 4.865 MMT from 4.849 MMT previously and is up 10% from last year’s 4.418 MMT.
APK-Inform modestly raised their estimate of Ukraine’s wheat crop to 27.9 MMT from 27.5 MMT previously, with exports now seen at 18.6 MMT, up solidly from previous ideas of 17.8 MMT. These estimates are modestly below USDA’s official Ukrainian production and export ideas of 28.7 MMT and 19.5 MMT, respectively, but USDA includes the Crimean Peninsula (roughly 1 MMT) in their estimates, while others do not since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. APK-Inform lowered their estimate of Ukraine’s corn crop to 33.2 MMT from 33.8 MMT previously, with exports lowered to 26.5 MMT from 26.8 MMT previously, while they see Ukraine’s 2019/20 rapeseed exports jumping nearly 17% from last year to 2.86 MMT.
USDA reported the sale of 143k tonnes of soybeans to unknown for 2019/20 delivery this morning.
NOPA’s monthly soybean crush report is out at 11:00 AM CT today. The average estimate of Sept soybean crush by NOPA members is 162.2 million bushels (155.7-166.9 million range of ideas) vs 168.1 million in August and would be a new record for the month. The average estimate of end September soybean oil stocks of NOPA members is 1.320 billion pounds (1.268-1.371 billion range of ideas) vs 1.401 billion in August and last year’s Sept stocks of 1.531 billion.
Weather A front will bring some light and widely scattered rains of generally under .30” today and early tomorrow across the corn belt. The rest of the week, the weekend and next Monday look to be dry with some rains possible in the OH River Valley over the weekend. By later Tuesday into Wednesday of next week, another front is indicated to bring rains to the belt with models backing off their ideas on amounts and coverage a bit, now showing .30-1” for southern MN, northern IA, southern MO and then most areas east of the MS River. Temps will run below average across the region through this Friday and then warm to a bit above average for the weekend and first half of next week. The Northern Plains look mostly quiet through Tue/Wed when .50-1” rains are expected. Temps will be running below average in the next 5 days and then look to warm to average to a bit above for the weekend and first half of next week. Nearly all Argentine growing areas saw .50-1” rains over the last 24 hours, with additional similar amounts expected with widespread coverage over the next 5 days. Brazil saw .50-1” amounts in RGDS and SC, light, scattered rains elsewhere. RGDS, SC and Parana are expected to see .50- 1” amounts over the next 5 days, while other areas are quiet. The 6-10 day period sees rains of .50-1.5”+ to fall in most of the Brazilian growing regions, with things mainly dry in Argentina.