Weather maps indicate the potential for sub 32 degree temps across the Dakotas, western MN and NW IA the morning of Oct. 3.
The USDA’s quarterly Grain Stocks report and Small Grains Annual Summary report will be released on Monday, September 30. Our pre-report commentary/analysis can be found on Market Insights at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/37449. A summary of the average trade estimates is on the following page.
USDA reported the sale of 581k tonnes of soybeans to China for 2019/20 delivery this morning in at least partial confirmation of the purchases discussed in recent days. It is generally believed China could end up with total U.S. soybean purchases of around 3-5 MMT ahead of the anticipated high level trade talks in mid-October.
Russia raised their official estimate of this year’s wheat crop to 78.0 MMT from 75.0 MMT previously and is now considerably above the USDA’s last official estimate of 72.5 MMT and last year’s 71.7 MMT. The USDA’s current 2019/20 Russian wheat export estimate of 34.0 MMT reflects a modest reduction from last year’s 35.9 MMT, but that now appears to be conservative in context of their Ag Ministry’s reflection of the crop being up 6.3 MMT from last year.
The Rosario Grains Exchange said more than 800k hectares of wheat area of the roughly 6.9 million total is struggling with dry conditions, with potential yield losses of 20-40% in the impacted areas. Dry conditions are also slowing early corn planting activity, as well.
An Indian trading/research firm said they see India’s 2019/20 (Nov-Oct) palm oil imports rising marginally to 9.7 MMT from 9.5 MMT this year, with soybean oil imports rising to 3.4 MMT from 3.1 MMT this year as domestic edible oil demand is seen rising to a record 23.6 MMT. Indian soybean production was estimated to decline nearly 13% from last year to around 9.0 MMT as excessive monsoon rains negatively impact production prospects. The USDA last reflected expectations for a minor 500k tonne decline in soybean production this year. However, groundnut, cotton and winter rapeseed production may benefit from the heavy monsoon rains.
Taiwan bought 65k tonnes of Brazilian corn at $201.68/tonne c&f for Dec shipment.
After the close yesterday, Egypt tendered for an unspecified amount of wheat for Oct 26-Nov 5 shipment. The lowest fob offers were French, but with Russian offers only around $2/tonne higher on an fob basis, they are likely to win the vast majority of any purchases given the freight advantage.
Weather Changes in the forecast now indicate a chance for temps in the upper 20s to mid 30s in the Dakotas, western MN and NW IA by the morning of Oct. 3. The Northern Plains are expected to see above normal temps for the next 5-6 days and then the potential for sub-freezing overnight temps is indicated for next Thursday night. The heart of the corn belt and central/southern plains continue to see no freeze threat through the 16-day outlook period. Above average rains will fall in the NW ½ to 2/3 of the Midwest, with average to below average rains in the SE. Several systems are indicated through next week. The SE Midwest should see generally less than .20” and coverage of 35% today, with the NW ½ of the belt on Friday seeing .30-.1”+ with 70% coverage, while areas southeast from Kansas City to Chicago see less than .20”/25% coverage. Rains of .40-1” are expected on Sunday NW of the KCChicago line, as well. Another event is seen for the NW Midwest by Wed-Thur of next week, with very early estimates on amounts running in the .50-1”+., with little to no rains are seen to fall in the SE Midwest with both the Sunday and Wed-Thur event.