-Attache sees solidly lower Chinese corn feed usage than official estimates – stocks higher
-No cold air threats through 16-day outlook
-South Korea sees more suspected ASF cases
-Cattle on Feed report this afternoon, decline from last year expected
There are still no cold air threat in forecasts through the 16-day period.
* The USDA ag attaché in China sees notably lower domestic feed usage of corn in 2019/20 than official USDA estimates indicate. The attaché is estimating corn feed usage this year at 175.0 MMT vs USDA’s official 188.0 MMT estimate, with 2018/19 feed usage put at 180.0 MMT vs USDA’s 190.0 MMT estimate, as well. The attaché estimates Chinese corn import this year at 6.0 MMT, below the USDA’s current 7.0 MMT estimate, but still up from 4.7 MMT in 2018/19 (USDA 5.0 MMT). On the supply side, the attaché sees this year’s Chinese corn crop at 250.0 MMT, below the USDA’s current 254.0 MMT estimate and down modestly from last year’s 257.3 MMT. However, with the increase in old crop stocks (lower feed) and lower new crop demand ideas, the attaché sees 2019/20 Chinese corn ending stocks at 211.5 MMT, solidly above the USDA’s current 195.8 MMT, but down from last year’s attaché-estimated 219.5 MMT (USDA officially at 211.8 MMT for 2018/19).
* South Korea is testing for more suspected cases of African swine fever in dead pigs at two farms located near the other confirmed cases this week.
* Ukraine reported total grain stocks as of September 1 held at medium/large commercial operations were 21.1 MMT, essentially unchanged from year ago stocks of 21.0 MMT, with wheat stocks at 15.3 MMT (year ago not available).
* French crop conditions slipped 1% in good/excellent last week to 59% and compares to 58% at this time last year. Corn harvest is just underway at 1% complete vs 8% a year ago.
* Russia’s Grain Union bumped their ideas of total 2019/20 grain exports higher to above 47.0 MMT from previous expectations of 46-47 MMT, with the total grain crop estimated at 121.0 MMT vs expectations of 128 MMT in July.
* The USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released today at 2:00 PM CT. The average trade estimate of cattle on feed as of September 1 is 99.3% of last year (98.5-100.0 range of ideas) and, if accurate, would be the first year-over-year decline in on feed numbers in 33 months, going back all the way to December 2016. The average estimate of August placements is 93.7% of last year (88.9-97.6 range), while August marketings are estimated at 98.3 (97.6-98.8 range).
No cold air threats are seen through the 16-day forecast window (October 6), with above normal temps expected over the coming 10-day period and average temps in the 11-16 day period. Average to above rains will fall across much of the Midwest in the next 10 days with widespread coverage of .50-1” amounts, locally 1”+, in activity moving west to Saturday through Monday. Things then look to quiet down across the corn belt early next week and remain fairly quiet for the rest of the week. Average to above average rains are seen for the central U.S. in the 11-16 day period.