-Wet forecast now raising soybean acreage concerns
-Australia lowers wheat crop ideas
-Malaysian palm oil stocks in line with expectations, production larger than expected
The outlook for above average rains across much of the belt, but in particular focus, the eastern belt, is supporting the market this morning as soybean acreage ideas may begin to come into question, as well. A series of rain events appears set to regularly impact the eastern belt, so what acreage wasn’t able to be planted this week is likely to see very little activity over the next 10-14 days, as well. For the areas expected to be the wettest over the next 10 days, there were still more than 15 million acres of soybeans to be planted in MO, IL, IN and OH as of last Sunday. Keep in mind the final planting date for full insurance coverage for soybeans is June 20 for OH, IN and the southern 2/3 of IL, and mostly June 20-25 for MO.
During the session yesterday, Australia solidly lowered their estimate of this year’s wheat crop to 21.2 MMT from early ideas of 23.9 MMT in March, but would still reflect a decent rebound from last year’s historically poor crop of just 17.3 MMT. Nonetheless, the crop appears set to fall well below the 10-year average of 24.7 MMT for the 3rd consecutive year. USDA left their estimate of the Australian crop unchanged yesterday at 22.5 MMT, but expected continued dryness in eastern growing areas is likely to eventually prompt a downward adjustment in the USDA’s estimate at some point.
The Malaysian Palm Oil Board reported end May palm oil stocks were 2.447 MMT, mostly in line with average expectations of 2.465 MMT and down from 2.729 MMT in April, but remaining above year ago stocks of 2.170 MMT. Malaysian palm oil production in May was 1.671 MMT, a bit larger than average expectations of 1.616 MMT and up from 1.649 MMT in April and continuing to run above year ago levels of 1.525 MMT. Palm oil exports in May of 1.712 MMT were in line with expectations of 1.707 MMT and were up from 1.651 MMT in April and well above year ago exports in May of 1.291 MMT.
France slightly raised their estimates of 2018/19 soft wheat and corn ending stocks in this month’s update to 2.4 MMT and 3.0 MMT, respectively, from 2.3 MMT and 2.7 MMT previously. Year ago soft wheat stocks were 3.0 MMT, while corn stocks were 2.5 MMT. The first official estimates for 2019/20 have not yet by released by FranceAgriMer.
South Korea bought 60k tonnes of optional-origin soybean meal overnight at $369.50/tonne c&f for September shipment, as well as 65k tonnes of optional-origin corn at $205.70/tonne c&f for early Dec arrival. Both were private deals. Taiwan bought 65k tonnes of likely Brazilian corn at +89 cents CZ (~211/tonne) c&f for LH Sept-Oct shipment.
Above average rainfall is still seen across much of the region in the next 10 days. The current system will be finishing up in the east in the next 24-36 hours. Rains of .40-1” look to fall in eastern WI, most of MI and far northern IL, with amounts in the rest of WI, IL and most of IN and OH to be generally under .40”. Most of tomorrow and early Friday look to be mainly dry, with the next system to impact the region later Friday into the weekend and Monday. The details to this system still see rains of .50-1” to fall in most areas, with some isolated heavier amounts as well. The best coverage and greatest amounts are currently indicated to favor MO, IL, IN and OH. More showers and thunderstorms are seen to occur across most of the region the first half of next week. Ideas still call for totals of .50-1”+ with coverage of around 85-90%. Temps will be running average to below average across the region in the next 10 days. The 11-16 day outlook currently shows a continued wet pattern with above average precip across most of the Plains and Midwest, and the potential for some excessive rains in eastern KS/OK. Temps would continue to run below average in the S. Plains and most of the Midwest, with average to above average temps in the northern Plains.
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