-Corn/wheat continue to move higher on heavy rains
-Argentine soybean harvest sees strong week – in final stretch, corn harvest still well ahead of average
-Argentine soybean crop ideas continue to move higher
Corn continued to work its way higher overnight as the drum beats on with rains continuing across the corn belt in regular fashion and much more appearing on the way in the weeks ahead. The soycomplex looks like it may attempt to take a little breather heading into the weekend with minor losses posted overnight.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange raised their estimate of the Argentine soybean crop to 56.0 MMT from 55.0 MMT previously, which is in line with the USDA’s latest estimate and obviously up sharply from last year’s 37.8 MMT.
It was another strong harvest week for the Argentine soybean crop, with 74% now complete vs 63% last week and compares to last year’s 67% and the 5-year average of 71%. The corn crop is now 48% harvested vs 44% last week and remains substantially ahead of the 5-year average at 37%, as well as last year’s 44%.
The USDA said they will begin testing for African swine fever as part of routine tests when pigs present with signs of sickness or are dead on arrival at slaughterhouses as they ramp up early detection attempts for the virus.
Two South Korean feedmills each booked 69k tonnes of optional-origin corn at prices of $183.99-$184.68/tonne c&f for early Dec arrival.
China’s first auction of state corn reserves this year will be a small offer of 75k tonnes in Inner Mongolia on May 22. If history is any indication, this will likely be followed quickly by another auction in main consuming areas of several million tonnes being offered as the weekly auctions get underway for the year. For reference, depending on the region of the auction, last year’s first reserve sales were done at prices around $224-$235/tonne.
French soft wheat crop conditions were unchanged last week at 79% good/excellent, which was the same as last year’s crop at this time, as well. The French corn crop is 88% planted vs 77% a week earlier.
A pair of strong and slow moving systems will bring soaking enough rains to slow/stall fieldwork in all but the SE ¼ of the region by the weekend and in most areas by the first half of next week. A third system is still seen to bring fairly soaking rains to most of MN, IA and WI by the very end of next week and weekend. The first area of low pressure will develop rains across the the west in the next 24 hours and those rains will spread into all but the far SE to the region by later tomorrow into Sunday. The models remain in good agreement with the details and see totals of 1-2”, with areas of 2”+, to fall in much of MN, IA and the northern ½ of MO. Totals in the rest of the Midwest look to be in the .50-1.5” range with some 1.5”+ amounts also likely. The only areas to see less than .50” fall are the southern 1/3rd to ½ of IL, IN and OH. By Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, a similar low pressure system is indicated to move into the Midwest and the models also remain in good agreement with the details regarding that system. Ideas call for totals of 50-1.5”+ to fall, with nearly 100% coverage. The latest European model does indicate fairly limited rains for most of MI, IN and OH with that event. A third low is still indicated to bring rains of .50-1”+ to most of IA, MN and WI by the very end of next week and weekend. Things look to remain mostly dry in the rest of the region for the end of next week and weekend.
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