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-Australia sharply cuts wheat crop estimate to 11-year low
-Most dry Argentine forecast supports soybean complex overnight
-December soybean oil deliveries jump
-Russia November wheat export ideas lowered

It’s going to be a busy data day as Export Inspections, Crop Progress, monthly Oilseed Crushings and Grain Crushings reports and CFTC COT data will all be out today. The Crop Progress report will only include corn and soybean harvest updates as winter wheat condition reports have stopped for the year. A mostly dry Argentine forecast was supportive for the soybean complex overnight, while corn and wheat pulled back slightly from Friday’s gains.

 Australia sharply cut their estimate of their wheat crop to just 15.85 MMT from 19.2 MMT previously estimated in September, bringing ABARES’ ideas in line with most private estimates of late. While USDA estimates have been coming down in recent months, their latest 17.2 MMT estimate remains well above the likely crop size. ABARES’ new estimate reflects a solid decline from last year’s poor crop of just 17.3 MMT and would be the lowest wheat production in 11 years.

 The Brazilian soybean crop is 84% planted vs 88% average and 95% last year.

 Sovecon lowered their expectation of Russian wheat exports in November to 2.6 MMT from 3.0 MMT previously and would be down from October exports of 3.648 MMT and last year’s Nov exports of 3.378 MMT. Based on the new estimate, 2019/20 marketing year to date (July-Nov) exports of 18.15 MMT would be down from last year’s 20.92 MMT.

 Trade deal-related comments over the weekend by the Chinese indicated a Phase One deal must include a roll-back of existing U.S. tariffs, not just a reprieve from the new tariffs set to go in place on December 15 – not viewed as a positive development.

 There were no USDA sales announcements this morning.

 For this afternoon’s Oilseed Crushings report, the average estimate of U.S.-wide soybean crush in October is 186.1 million bushels (184.9-187.5 million range of ideas) vs 162.3 million in September, above last year’s 183.6 million and would be a new all-time record in exceeding December 2018’s 183.8 million. The average estimate reflects total U.S. crush 6.1% above previously-reported NOPA member Oct crush of 175.4 million bushels, which is the average difference between the two over the last four months. The average estimate of end October U.S. soybean oil stocks is 1.763 billion pounds (1.726-1.829 billion range of ideas) vs 1.776 billion in September and 2.048 billion last year in October. The average estimate reflects U.S. total SBO stocks 23.9% larger than NOPA-member stocks, in line with the September difference of 23.2%. Last month’s soybean oil stocks were the lowest for any month since November 2017.

 December soybean oil deliveries were 1,270 contracts, jumping sharply from Friday’s 226, and were all put out by Bunge. The last trade date was 11/25/19. Soybean meal deliveries re-circulated with 260 contracts put out (last trade date 11/22/19), as did KCBT wheat deliveries of 11 contracts (11/18/19 LTD). No December corn or CBOT wheat deliveries have been put out yet.

Weather Rains of .30-1” fell across most of Brazilian growing regions over the weekend, with the exception of most of Santa Catarina and Parana missing out. Rains of .40-1”+ are expected for areas north of Parana in the next 5 days, while .40-1” is expected for northern RGDS and most of Santa Catarina and Parana Tuesday through Thursday. Rains of 1-2” are expected from northern sections of MGDS and Sao Paulo north in the 6-10 day period, with things mainly dry to the south. Rains of .30-.80” fell across most of Argentine growing regions over the weekend. Rains of .25-.75” are expected for most of La Pampa and Buenos Aries Tuesday, but otherwise dry conditions are expected in the coming 5-day period, with all areas being dry in the 6-10 day outlook.

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