-China publishes official revised feed protein content guidelines – sees reduced soybean/SBM consumption
-First U.S. winter wheat crop conditions this afternoon
-Brazilian soybean planting continues at very fast pace
-Russian winter grain planting larger than initial expectations
-USDA reports soybeans sold to unknown
-Favorable South American weather expected over next 10 days
The soybean complex traded modestly higher overnight following the Brazilian election in which pro ag/trade candidate Jair Bolsonaro won, prompting
continued strength in the Brazilian Real. Corn and wheat headed into the break with minor gains, as well.
China’s Feed Industry Association announced on Friday the new official guidelines for protein content in hog and chicken feed, lowering the approved
standard for protein in hog feed by 1.5% and by 1.0% for chicken feed. The specific timing of the new standards was not stated, but officials said the
changes are expected to lower annual soybean consumption by 14 MMT and soybean meal consumption by 11 MMT. However, views are mixed on the
potential impact of the revised guidelines with some Chinese soybean traders saying they are not enforceable and that prices of soybeans and SBM will
have a greater influence on demand levels than the protein standard revisions, while some feel the impact could be substantial but with uncertainty on
This afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress report will include the first crop condition ratings of the year for the winter wheat crop. Last year’s initial rating
was 52% good/excellent and 12% poor/very poor, while the most-recent 5-year average of the initial condition rating is 56% good/excellent. Corn and
soybean condition updates are done for the year.
AgRural estimates the Brazilian soybean crop was 46% planted as of Friday, continuing to run substantially ahead of overage of 28% and last year’s
30% at this time. Their early ideas on the coming soybean crop are around 120.3 MMT vs last year’s 119.3 MMT.
After earlier delays due to cold, wet conditions, Saskatchewan’s harvest is nearing completion after making very good progress last week. All crops
were said to be 92% harvested vs 94% average at this time, while the spring wheat crop specifically is also 92% harvested, with canola 90% complete.
SovEcon sees Russian wheat exports in October being 4.3 MMT and would bring 2018/19 marketing year-to-date (July-Oct) exports to 17.3 MMT.
Official export data through 10/25/18 shows 16.3 MMT of wheat was exported, up 33% from the same time last year.
Russia’s ag ministry said 17.5 million hectares (43.2 million acres) of winter grains had been planted so far, exceeding the ministry’s initial expectations
of 17.2 million hectares, and running solidly ahead of last year’s pace in which 16.6 million hectares had been planted at this time. They also reported
that 73.2 MMT of wheat had been harvested so far from this year’s crop, while USDA last estimated the Russian wheat crop at 70.0 MMT.
Announced Friday afternoon, the U.S. did win a minor share of Egypt’s latest wheat tender in selling 60k tonnes of SRW, but the fact remained that
U.S. SRW was still more than $5/tonne more expensive than Russian wheat when factoring in freight. Besides the one cargo of U.S. SRW at
$253.97/tonne c&f, but they bought 350k tonnes of Russian wheat priced from $248.80-$253.17/tonne and just 60k tonnes of Ukrainian wheat at
$253.17/tonne c&f, as well, for a total of 470k tonnes all for Dec 11-20 delivery.
Friday afternoon’s CFTC Disaggregated COT data for futures/options combined as of 10/23/18 showed funds modest net seller in the ag complex, with
the exception of corn and soybean oil. Funds were net seller of 9.3k contracts in CBOT wheat to move their net short to 26.1k contracts, 8.1k soybeans
(net short 44.4k), 6.5k KCBT wheat (net long 21.7k), 5.4k SBM (net long 36.6k) and 1.5k MPLS wheat (net short 3.6k). Funds were net buyers of 5.2k
contracts in corn (net long 25.4k) and 1.6k soybean oil (net short 31.5k).
USDA reported the sale of 120k tonnes of soybeans to unknown this morning.