Row crop markets erode on big US yields and concern over implementation of additional US tariffs on PRC. Wheat, higher overnight on W Australia frosts, fades post biscuit (CWG says most areas 30-35 degrees while some in upper 20’s). Of greater importance is 2 week dry pattern across all of Australia. Nonetheless, in the short term, Russia still offering lowest price wheat to all bidders.
Weather a mixed bag with western Midwest slated for 0.5-2 inch rains including S MN, N IA, E SD and WI. Western Midwest clears up during 11-15 day while eastern Midwest trends wetter. Looks like a stop and go harvest into early October when majority of Midwest (according t CWG 16-30 day forecast) trends normal to below normal on rain (except for NE/IA).
Highlights of weekly crop roundup: Week of warm/dry weather pushing crops rapidly to maturity/dry down Soy yields exceeding expectations and prior year record High silage yields suggest big corn yields Corn yields in eastern Midwest improving as harvest advances Historically low (and still eroding CN/BN basis) encouraging farmers to hold Forced selling of excess harvest bushels (on small rallies) will exceed expectations Harvest pace ramps up considerably next week—weather permitting IN commentator surprised at soy yields—60 BPA & many over 70 BPA; IL—many 70-80 BPA MN CN/BN river basis Z-62/X-1.15 respectively while processors at Z-42/Xw-65 Delta soy basis (X-60) “unheard of”: farmers hoping for quick resolution of US/PRC trade flap
Early harvest returns affirm USDA’s record US CN/BN yields—which may go even higher. Wheat back and fills after Friday surge. Markets must now consider possibility that 9/19 US row crop stocks go even higher. (9/19 US soy stocks may exceed 900 mb vs. USDA’s 845 mb forecast).
• For the week, CZ down 15.25 cents, SX down 13.75 cents/bu, WZ up 0.25 cents, SMZ down $8.40 and BOZ down 49 points.
• (N IN IB yield update) Beans are fantastic, corn inconsistent but it is very early yet.
• PRC Ag Ministry says recent frosts trim 2018 soy crop 0.275 mmt.
• SoyEcon estimates Russia Sept grain exports at 4.7 mmt vs. 5.3 mmt Aug.
• Funds Friday buy 5K corn and 6K wheat while selling 3K beans and 7K meal.
• New crop corn sales 15.2 mmt vs. 10.5 mmt LY, new crop soy sales at 17.0 mmt vs.17.0 mmt LY while wheat sales at 9.7 mmt vs. 12.7 mmt LY.
• NOPA on Monday expected to report Aug crush at 163.87 mb (record Aug if realized) vs. 167.7 mb July along with oil stocks of 1.762 bil lbs vs. 1.764 end of July and 1.417 bil lbs end of Aug 2017.
• Australian wheat offers un-competitive in world export market as eastern livestock producers bid for wheat supplies in W Australia in wake of drought reduced 2018 wheat production.
• Head of Canadian Dairy lobby requests meeting with Canada’s Chief Trade Negotiator (perhaps sensing that Trudeau ready to make concessions on dairy to close NAFTA deal with the US).
• Trade Monday looking for corn harvest at 10% (vs. 10% average) and soy harvest at 2-3% (3% average).