-$13 billion aid package to farmers announced
-Early Argentine corn planting off to fast start
-Wide open U.S. harvest weather ahead
-More soybean/corn sales announced to China
Soybeans look to continue the charge higher into the weekend with another strong performance overnight as the focus remains squarely on the continuous strong Chinese buying and thoughts of the U.S. crops being below USDA estimates.
President Trump announced a new $13 billion aid package for farmers yesterday, expected to be similar in nature to previous packages with direct payments being made based on individual yield/production levels and estimated Coronavirus-impacted price losses. Applications for the new package may begin as early as Monday. The additional aid may alter some marketing decisions given the current strength in prices as the added cash flow may influence some store vs sell decisions.
USDA announced sales to China this morning of 210k tonnes of corn and 132k tonnes of soybeans, along with 100k tonnes of soybean meal sold to unknown – all for 2020/21 delivery.
As expected, Algeria is opening its future wheat tenders to Russia as they officially move to raise the insect damage tolerance for 12.5% protein wheat (Black Sea) to 0.5% from 0.1% previously, while leaving the tolerance at 0.1% for 11.0% protein (French) supplies. They also invited Russian exporters to apply for accreditation in government tenders, with those submissions due by October 31, potentially allowing for Russian exports to begin in about two months.
The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange sees Argentine farmers somewhat shifting planting ideas for this year’s crops given the
ongoing dryness and expected impacts of the current weak La Nina. With ideas of improved late-year moisture, they said some appear to be shifting away from soybeans, opting for late season corn which is planted in Nov-Dec vs early season planting which has already begun. The Rosario Grains Exchange sees this year’s soybean planted area only increasing by 100k hectares from last year to 17.3 million (42.7 million acres).
On that note, Argentine corn planting is now 10% complete, making a notable jump from last week’s 2% and is ahead of last
year’s 6% pace at this time, as well as the 5-year average of 7%. Given the dryness, planting can accelerate quickly, but we’ll
have to see if it begins to slow as farmers await better moisture.
French corn conditions declined 1% in good/excellent last week to 59%, now exactly the same as last year’s crop at this time.
Corn harvest is now 4% complete vs 1% last year.
Dry weather looks to dominate the majority of the corn belt through the weekend and Monday. A few showers still look to pop across MN and far northwestern IA by Monday of next week. Totals with that activity look to be less than .20”, with spotty
coverage. The 6-10 day period sees the dry weather to continue across region. By the very end of the period (Sept. 25-26), a front is indicated to work into the western ½ of the belt bringing rains of .25-.85” to most of IA, MO, WI and NW IL. No cold threats are seen through the 16-day outlook.