-Trade estimates for Friday’s USDA Grain Stocks/Small Grains Summary reports
-US corn/soybean conditions improve – harvest remains ahead of average
-Parade of rain events to slow harvest activity over the coming week
The latest round of new import tariffs issued by the U.S. and China went into effect yesterday as both sides continue to indicate they may be digging in for a potentially prolonged dispute. Modest rain events over the next 10 days will slow U.S. harvest, but are not viewed as a concern at this time. Corn and soybean crop conditions both ticked up 1% in yesterday’s update and, while many largely dismiss lateseason condition improvements, they certainly go to support current ideas of record yields.
The USDA will release the quarterly Grain Stocks report and Small Grains Annual Summary report (2018/19 “final” wheat production) on Friday. The Grain Stocks report will provide data for September 1 stocks in all positions (2017/18 ending stocks for corn and soybeans, stocks at the end of the 1st quarter for wheat). Remember, USDA does not release U.S. or world balance sheet revisions with the reports on Friday. Those will next be issued in the October 11 WASDE report. With the Sept 1 stocks numbers for corn and soybeans reflecting old crop ending stocks, market expectations typically are near the USDA’s existing estimates, and that is the case once again. The average estimate of Sept 1 U.S. corn stocks is 2.010 billion bushels (1.960-2.099 billion range of ideas) vs USDA’s last 2017/18 ending stocks estimate of 2.002 billion, while Sept 1 soybean stocks are estimated at 401 million bushels (378-489 million range) vs USDA last at 395 million. The average estimate of Sept 1 U.S. wheat stocks is 2.343 billion bushels (2.155-2.443 billion range of ideas) and compares to last year’s Sept 1 stocks of 2.226 billion.
For “final” wheat production (USDA does updated numbers again in the Annual Crop Production report in January), the average estimate of the all wheat crop is 1.872 billion bushels vs USDA last at 1.877 billion, while all winter wheat is seen at 1.118 billion vs 1.189 billion USDA last. On a by-class basis, the average estimate of the HRW crop is 661 million vs USDA last at 661, SRW 290 mil vs USDA last 292, white winter 236 mil vs USDA last 236, other spring 609 mil vs USDA last 614, durum 73 mil vs USDA last 73 mil.
As part of the September Grain Stocks report, USDA uses it as the opportunity to revise the previous year’s soybean crop if such an adjustment appears necessary based on reported September 1 stocks. Little change is expected this year as evidenced by the average trade estimate of the 2017/18 U.S. soybean crop of 4.389 billion bushels (4.376-4.412 billion range of ideas) vs USDA last at 4.392 billion.
Ukrainian ag consultant APK-Inform said the country’s grain exports to China during July-August declined 41% from last year (427k tonnes vs 721k last year) due to higher prices and reduced Chinese demand, possibly due to the African swine fever outbreak. Barley exports have suffered the most, declining to 258k tonnes from last year’s 563k during July-Aug.
U.S. corn and soybean crop conditions both unexpectedly improved by 1% g/e (unchanged trade ideas), while harvest remains ahead of average. The U.S. corn crop is 16% harvested vs 11% average, while soybeans are 14% harvested vs 8% average. Winter wheat planting is 28% complete vs 26% average. Full details are available on Market Insights at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/33481.
Taiwan tendered for 110k tonnes of U.S. wheat, with offers due by October 2.