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USDA OILSEEDS CRUSH REPORT AND GRAIN CRUSHINGS REPORT SUMMARIES

 Posted on 10/1/2018 2:42:25 PM by Randy Mittelstaedt

-U.S. soybean crush/soybean oil stocks in August mostly in line with expectations

-U.S. corn for ethanol usage a bit less than anticipated based on ethanol production data

 

 

USDA reported U.S.-wide soybean crush in August was 169.6 million bushels, in line with average market expectations of 169.3 million (169.0-170.0 million range of ideas) and was nearly 12% above last year’s August crush of 151.6 million bushels. With the 2017/18 soybean marketing year data now complete, annual crush was 2.055 billion bushels, right in line with the USDA’s last estimate in the September WASDE report and compared to the previous year’s 1.901 billion. U.S. soybean oil production in August was 1.945 billion pounds vs 2.043 billion in July and 1.762 billion last year, while the average soybean oil yield ticked up to 11.47 pounds/bushel in August from 11.42 in July, but was still well below last year’s same-month yield of 11.62. End August U.S.-wide soybean oil stocks were reported at 2.215 billion pounds, mostly in line with average market expectations of 2.236 billion (2.193-2.360 billion range of ideas) and was down from July’s 2.384 billion pounds, but still 22% above year ago August stocks of 1.810 billion pounds. August soybean oil stocks were 36.5% larger than NOPA-member stocks of 1.623 billion pounds, reflecting an increase from July’s 35.2% deviation and was the largest percentage difference of the 2017/18 marketing year so far, while the average deviation has been 30.3% above NOPA stocks this year. Based on estimated exports for the month, domestic soybean oil usage was implied up 5% from last year in August. U.S. soybean meal production in August was 4.031 million tons vs 4.245 million in July and 3.556 million last year, while end August stocks were 401k tons vs 512k last year. Based on estimated August soybean meal exports, domestic usage was implied up 8-9% from last year for the month.

 

 

USDA reported 479.4 million bushels of corn was used for ethanol production in August, little-changed from 481.3 million in July and actually marginally below last year’s August usage of 480.2 million bushels, despite estimated ethanol production in the month being up 3% from the previous year. Implied ethanol yields in July and August moved solidly higher from those seen in previous months, allowing less corn to be used to produce the same amount of ethanol. Based on estimated ethanol production in August, using the EIA weekly data, the ethanol/corn yield was 2.893 gallons/bushel, up from the elevated level in July of 2.885, and compares to the 2017/18 corn marketing year average yield to this point of 2.843 gallons/bushel. Prior years also have seen a late-season bump higher in ethanol/corn yields so this situation is not all that uncommon. With this month’s report including the final month of data for 2017/18, marketing year total corn for ethanol usage was 5.601 billion bushels, right in line with the USDA’s current balance sheet estimate of 5.600 billion. USDA reported 6.3 million bushels of sorghum was used for ethanol production in August, essentially unchanged from 6.2 million in July and compares to 6.7 million last year in August, resulting in corn accounting for 98.7% of feedstocks used for ethanol production in the month. Over the 2017/18 marketing year, corn accounted for 98.9% of the mix between corn and sorghum used for ethanol production. Total DDGS production in the 2017/18 corn marketing year was 23.630 million tons, essentially unchanged from 23.407 million tons in 2016/17, while production in 2015/16 was 22.838 million tons.

 

 

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