1
Global Previews and Perspectives
…covering global macroeconomics, central bank policy, and fundamentals
of the equity, interest rate, currency, metal, and energy markets.
Unfavorable SPX autumn seasonals could be particularly
dangerous this year — Seasonal tendencies
have entered into an unfavorable time during August and
September. Since 1950, the S&P 500 index has shown an
average monthly decline of -0.09% in August and -0.51%
in September, with September being the worst month of the
year.
While average monthly changes are important, it is also
important to determine when unusually large down-moves
tend to occur. Starting in August, we have moved into the
most dangerous time of the year for unusually large sell-offs.
In the past six decades there have been eight times when the
S&P 500 has shown a monthly decline of more than 10%.
Six of those eight plunges occurred during the dangerous
period of August through November.
The worst months, with two 10%-plus plunges, were in
September (1974 and 2002) and October (1987 and 2008).
The two other bad months during that time frame, with one
10%-plus plunge each, were in August (1998) and November
(1973).
The markets are coming into this year’s dangerous seasonal
period with particular vulnerability. First, the stock market
is trading at high valuation levels and is priced for perfection.
Any sell-off on major negative news could be particularly
sharp since it wouldn’t be cushioned until much lower
levels when reasonable valuations should in theory trigger
some buying.
Second, this autumn has plenty of threats that could trigger
a sharp stock market sell-off such as (1) a U.S. government
shut-down on Oct 1 if Congress does not approve new
spending authority, (2) the threat of a Treasury default in
October if the debt ceiling is not raised, (3) the potential for
even worse White House political uncertainty as the Russian
investigation progresses, and (4) the North Korean situation.
U.S. retail sales expected to show some strength as
Q3 begins — The market consensus is for today’s July retail
sales report to show a solid increase of +0.3% for the headline
and +0.4% for retail sales ex-autos. That would follow
June’s weak report of -0.2% and -0.2% ex-autos. Retail
sales in the past five months (Feb-June) have been lackluster
with an average monthly increase of zero. U.S. consumers
TUESDAY, AUGUST 15, 2017
0.94%
0.04%
1.25%
1.46%
0.23%
-0.04%
1.03%
-0.09%
-0.51%
0.89%
1.54% 1.63%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
S&P Average Monthly Gains (1950-2016)
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
US Retail Sales (yoy%)
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
-22%
-20%
-18%
-16%
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
US Retail Sales (yoy%) vs US Consumer Confidence
U.S. Retail Sales (yoy%)
Univ of Michigan’s U.S.
Consumer Sentiment Index
RJO’BRIEN MARKET INSIGHTS – GLOBAL PREVIEWS & PERSPECTIVES
2
have been cautious in spending money on retail goods, particularly
on large-ticket items such as autos. Indeed, vehicle
sales have already been reported for July and were weak at
16.69 million units, only modestly above June’s 2-1/2 year
low of 19.59 million units.
Regardless of the weakness seen so far this year, there is
still the potential for U.S. consumers to at least modestly
increase their spending through the remainder of the year.
U.S. consumers in theory should be willing to spend money
with consumer confidence at high levels and with the labor
market in very strong shape. In addition, household wealth
is rising with the record highs in the stock market and with
rising home prices. Indeed, U.S. consumers are at least
stepping up their purchases of services if not retail goods,
thus keeping the overall U.S. spending data in better shape
than the retail sales figures suggest.
In fact, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow is forecasting that
personal consumption will contribute 1.91 points to the
expected +3.5% Q3 GDP report (+2.5% ex-inventories). A
+1.91 point contribution to GDP would be a solid contribution
in line with the recent trend, except for the weak
contribution of 1.32 points seen in Q1.
U.S. NAHB housing index expected unchanged — The
market consensus is for today’s Aug NAHB housing market
index to be unchanged at 64 following July’s -2 point decline
to 64. The homebuilder confidence index in the past
four months has dipped by -7 points to an 8-month low of
64 from the 12-year high of 71 posted in March as much
of the post-election euphoria has worn off among home
builders. Nevertheless, June’s NAHB index level of 64 still
represents a strong confidence level that is in line with prerecession
levels seen in 2003-05.
U.S. home builders remain very confident in general due
to strong new home sales, tight supplies of new homes
on the market, and strong new home prices. Specifically,
the June new home sales level of 610,000 units was only
-4.4% below the 9-1/2 year high of 638,000 units posted
in March. June’s supply of new homes on the market of
5.4 months was tighter than the long-term average of 6.1
months. June’s median new home sales price of $310,800
was just mildly below the record high of $332,700 posted in
Dec 2016.
U.S. import prices expected to remain weak — The
market consensus is for today’s U.S. July import price report
to be +0.1% and +0.1% ex-petroleum following June’s
weak report of -0.2% and +0.1% ex-petroleum. While U.S.
import prices have been on the rise for the past 1-1/2 years,
import prices were still only tepid in May with increases of
+2.1% y/y and +1.4% y/y ex-petroleum. In theory, U.S.
import prices should be rising at a significantly faster pace
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
U.S. Import vs Ex-Petroleum Import Price Indexes (yoy%)
Import Price Index
Import Price Ex-Petroleum Index
Import Prices
Import Prices
Ex-Petroleum
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
NAHB Housing Market Index (Index Points)
Housing Sarts – Thousand Units
NAHB Housing Market Index vs U.S. Housing Starts
NAHB Housing Market Index
US Housing Starts
because of the sharp decline in the dollar seen so far this year.
That plunge in the dollar puts pressure on importers to raise
their prices in order to offset the effects of dollar depreciation
and maintain their profit margins.
Indeed, the Fed is counting on import prices to put upward
pressure on the inflation statistics, along with higher wages,
in order to meet its forecast that inflation will move up towards
its +2.0% target over the medium-term.
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18
U.S. Import vs Ex-Petroleum Import Price Indexes
Import Price Index
Import Price Index Ex-Petroleum
Index
points
Import
Price Index
Import Price Index
Ex-Petroleum
RJO’BRIEN MARKET INSIGHTS – GLOBAL PREVIEWS & PERSPECTIVES
3
Market Recap
• Eurozone Jun industrial production fell -0.6% m/m, weaker than expectations
of -0.5% m/m and the biggest decline in 6 months.
• China Jul industrial production rose +6.4% y/y, weaker than expectations
of +7.1% y/y and the smallest pace of increase in 7 months.
• Japan Q2 GDP rose +4.0% (q/q annualized), stronger than expectations
of +2.5% (q/q annualized) and the fastest pace of growth in over
2-years. The Q2 GDP deflator fell -0.4%, stronger than expectations
of -0.5%. Q2 GDP private consumption rose +0.9% q/q, stronger
than expectations of +0.5% q/q and the biggest increase in 3-years. Q2
GDP business spending rose +2.4% q/q, stronger than expectations of
+1.2% q/q and the biggest increase in 3-years.
• Market closes
• Stock Market — The S&P 500 on Monday closed sharply higher:
S&P 500 +1.00, Dow Jones +0.62%, Nasdaq +1.31%. Bullish factors
included (1) signs of strength in the Japanese economy that benefits
global growth after Japan Q2 GDP rose +4.0% (q/q annualized), stronger
than expectations of +2.5% (q/q annualized) and the fastest pace of
growth in over 2-years, and (2) reduced market volatility after the VIX
volatility index plunged when North Korean geopolitical risks subsided.
A bearish factor was weakness in energy producers after crude oil prices
fell -2.52%.
• Interest Rates –Sep 10-year T-notes on Monday closed lower: TYU7
-8.50, FVU7 -4.75. Bearish factors included (1) reduced safe-haven
demand for T-notes as the stock market rallied sharply after North Korean
tensions eased, and (2) signs of stronger global economic growth
that may prompt the Fed to raise interest rates and the BOJ to taper QE
after Japan Q2 GDP expanded at a +4.0% (q/q annualized) pace, the
fastest pace of growth in over 2-years.
• Forex — The dollar index on Monday closed higher: Dollar Index
+0.342 (+0.37%), EUR/USD -0.0041 (-0.35%), USD/JPY +0.44
(+0.40%). Bullish factors included (1) weakness in EUR/USD after
Eurozone Jun industrial production fell -0.6% m/m, the biggest decline
in 6 months, and (2) the increase in 10-year T-note yields, which improves
the dollar’s interest rate differentials.
• Metals — Metals on Monday closed mostly lower: Dec gold -3.6
(-0.28%), Sep silver +0.052 (+0.30%), Sep copper -0.0075 (-0.26%).
Bearish factors included (1) a stronger dollar, (2) reduced North Korean
geopolitical risks, which sent stock prices soaring and curbed the safehaven
demand for precious metals, and (3) the weaker-than-expected
China Jul industrial production, which signals reduced copper demand.
• Energy — Sep crude oil and gasoline on Monday fell to 2-1/2 week
lows and closed lower: Sep WTI crude -1.23 (-2.52%), Sep gasoline
-0.0363 (-2.25%). Bearish factors included (1) a stronger dollar, (2)
slack Chinese crude demand after China Jul crude processing fell
-4.4% to 10.76 million bpd, the smallest amount of crude processed in
10-months, and (3) negative carry-over from Friday’s data from Baker
Hughes that showed U.S. active oil rigs in the week ended Aug 11 rose
+3 to 768, the most in 2-1/3 years.
Key News from Monday, Aug 14
RJO’BRIEN MARKET INSIGHTS – GLOBAL PREVIEWS & PERSPECTIVES
4
RJO’BRIEN MARKET INSIGHTS – LATEST POSTS
USDA Weekly Crop Progress Recap
Posted on Aug 14, 2017, 03:17 by Randy Mittelstaedt
-US corn crop conditions 62% good/excellent vs 60%
expected (59-62% range of ideas), 60% last week, 74% last
year – conditions up more than expected – all major states but
IA post worthy improvements
-US soybean crop conditions 59% good/excellent vs 60%
expected (59-62% range of ideas), 60% last week, 72% last
year – conditions down 1% vs unchanged expectations, but
many states improve, IL/IA down
-US spring wheat crop conditions 33% good/excellent vs
33% expected (32-34% range of ideas), 32% last week, 66%
last year – conditions up 1% as expected
Cattle Still Vulnerable Amidst Frothy Sentiment While
Hogs Debating Correction vs. Reversal
Posted on Aug 14, 2017, 02:03 by Dave Toth
The combination of a clear and present downtrend amidst
still-frothy bullish sentiment by the managed money
community leaves the Oct cattle market vulnerable to further
and possibly steep losses. Please review today’s Technical
Webcast for details that include a tighter short-term risk
parameter around which to negotiate the current rebound in
Oct hogs.
CWG Spotlight and Update
Posted on Aug 14, 2017, 12:11 by Rich Feltes
Matif Wheat Reaffirms Bear, Intact Below Minimum
170.00
Posted on Aug 14, 2017, 11:37 by Dave Toth
Fri’s relapse below 09-Aug’s 167.00 low and our micro risk
parameter obviously negated our buy recommendation from
Thur’s Trading Strategies Blog and reaffirmed the major bear
trend. The important by-product of this resumed weakness
is the market’s definition of…
Ethanol Range Reversion Exposed Following Mo
Failure
Posted on Aug 14, 2017, 10:38 by Dave Toth
In last Mon’s Technical Blog we identified 03-Aug’s 1.553
corrective low close and risk parameter the market needed
to sustain gains above to maintain a more immediate bullish
count. Its failure to do so on Thus breaks the…
USDA Weekly Grain Export Inspections Recap
Posted on Aug 14, 2017, 10:32 by Randy Mittelstaedt
-Soybean exports at top end of expectations
-Corn exports slightly lower than expected
-Wheat exports as expected
Bean Oil Reaffirms Correction, Defines New Bear Risk
Levels
Posted on Aug 14, 2017, 09:35 by Dave Toth
Today’s relapse below 03-Aug’s 33.64 initial counter-trend
low reaffirms a peak/reversal environment following that
early-Aug mo failure discussed in 04-Aug’s Technical Blog.
As a direct result of this resumed weakness the hourly chart
below shows that the market has identified…
AM Grain Notes
Posted on Aug 14, 2017, 08:53 by Rich Feltes
USDBRL Stems Slide But Upside Potential Uncertain
Posted on Aug 14, 2017, 08:46 by Dave Toth
Fri’s break above 25-Jul’s 3.1750 corrective high close
confirms a bullish divergence in USDBRL momentum that
stems Jun-Aug’s slide at 3.1160. But whether this portends a
broader reversal or a mere corrective pop is indeterminable at
this juncture, so the safety of the sidelines is advised. Please
review today’s Technical Webcast for details that include
a slippery slope for USDJPY bears “down here” around
109.70-area prices.
Tighten USD Index, Euro Risk Levels Amidst Developing
Reversal Threats
Posted on Aug 14, 2017, 08:29 by Dave Toth
The momentum failures resulting from 04-Aug’s USD
strength are thus far of a scale insufficient to break this year’s
major USD bear. But if the USD Index can follow up last
week’s rebound with a recovery above last week’s 93.89
high, the intermediate-to-longer-term tide would arguably
be shifting and would warrant defensive steps to what has
been a bearish USD policy since Jan. Please review today’s
Technical Webcast for details that include a similar but
inverted view of the Euro.
CBOT Grains Morning Comments
Posted on Aug 14, 2017, 08:13 by Randy Mittelstaedt
-Increased rain forecasts weigh on markets overnight
-CFTC data shows continued fund selling in grains/oilseeds
Eurodollar Reaffirms Major 2017 Correction
Posted on Aug 14, 2017, 08:00 by Dave Toth
Fri’s clear break above the 98.42-area that has capped this
market as resistance for the past three weeks confirms May-
Jul’s sell-off attempt as a 3-wave and thus corrective affair
that warns of a…
RJO’BRIEN MARKET INSIGHTS – GLOBAL PREVIEWS & PERSPECTIVES
5
Pure Risk/Reward Buy in Dec Matif Wheat
Posted on Aug 10, 2017, 08:19 AM by Dave Toth
We always try to emphasize the important issue of technical and trading
SCALE when negotiating a prospective reversal situation. For while every
major reversal starts with a minor one, there is no way to CONCLUDE a
major reversal from mere smaller-degree price action against the trend. But
every now and then we see a
Corn, Soybean Bear Option Considerations for Producers
Posted on Aug 09, 2017, 01:31 PM by Dave Toth
DEC CORN
We don’t need to hash over the details of this market’s technical condition as
they’re stated in the Technical Blog we posted moments ago. Suffice it to say
however that if the Dec contract breaks 23-Jun’s key 3.74 low, it will expose a
run at
Bull Combo Strategies for Corn, Soybean End-Users
Posted on Aug 09, 2017, 12:52 PM by Dave Toth
DEC CORN
In 02-Aug’s Technical Blog we reiterated what we believe are favorable risk/
reward conditions from the bull side from the Dec contract’s recent position
at the extreme lower recesses of this year’s 4.17 – 3.74-range shown in the daily
chart below. A break below
Navigate Pending Wheat Bottom, Favorable R/R Buy with Sep Combo
Posted on Aug 08, 2017, 09:33 AM by Dave Toth
Only a glance at the clear and present downtrend in the hourly chart below
is needed to see that the market has yet to provide the evidence necessary to
conclude the end of the past month’s impressive relapse. Indeed, even on a
short-term scale a recovery above
Tighten S-T USDCAD Rebound Risk Following Further Gains
Posted on Aug 07, 2017, 07:26 AM by Dave Toth
Fri and overnight’s continued recovery above Thur’s 1.2620 high reaffirms the
suspected corrective rebound introduced in 28-Jul’s Technical Blog following
27-Jul’s bullish divergence in short-term momentum. This latest spate of
strength leaves
RJO’BRIEN MARKET INSIGHTS – RECENT TRADING RECOMMENDATIONS
RJO’BRIEN MARKET INSIGHTS – GLOBAL PREVIEWS & PERSPECTIVES
6
Global Financial & Commodity Event Calendar
Global Calendar – Tuesday 8/15/17
Today’s News (ET release time)
Tue US 0830 ET Jul import price index expected +0.1% m/m, Jun -0.2% and +0.1% ex-petroleum. Jul export price index
expected +0.2% m/m, Jun -0.2% m/m and +0.6% y/y.
0830 ET Aug Empire manufacturing survey general business conditions expected +0.2 to 10.0, Jul -10.0 to 9.8.
0830 ET Jul retail sales expected +0.3% and +0.4% ex autos, Jun -0.2% and -0.2% ex autos.
1000 ET Aug NAHB housing market index expected unch at 64, Jul -2 to 64.
1000 ET Jun business inventories expected +0.4%, May +0.3%.
JPN 0030 ET Revised Japan Jun industrial production, prelim-Jun 1.6% m/m and +4.9% y/y.
0030 ET Japan Jun capacity utilization, May -4.1% m/m.
GER 0200 ET German Q2 GDP expected+0.7% q/q and +1.9% y/y, Q1 +0.6% q/q and +1.7% y/y.
UK 0430 ET UK Jul CPI expected unch m/m and +2.7% y/y, Jun unch m/m and +2.6% y/y. Jul core CPI expected
+2.5% y/y, Jun +2.4% y/y.
0430 ET UK Jul RPI expected +0.1% m/m and +3.5% y/y, Jun +0.2% m/m and +3.5% y/y. Jul RPI ex mortgage
interest payments expected +3.7% y/y, Jun +3.8% y/y.
0430 ET UK Jul PPI input prices expected +0.4% m/m and +6.9% y/y, Jun -0.4% m/m and +9.9% y/y. Jul PPI
output prices expected unch m/m and +3.1% y/y, Jun unch m/m and +3.3% y/y. Jul PPI output core
expected +0.1% m/m and +2.5% y/y, Jun +0.2% m/m and +2.9% y/y.
0430 ET UK Jun house price index expected +4.3% y/y, May +4.7% y/y.
CAN 0900 ET Canada Jul existing home sales, Jun -6.7% m/m.
Future News:
Wed US 0700 ET Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous +3.0% with purchase sub-index +0.8% and refi sub-index
+5.3%.
0830 ET Jul housing starts expected +0.4% to 1.220 million, Jun +8.3% to 1.215 million. Jul building permits
expected -2.0% to 1.250 million, Jun +9.2% to 1.275 million.
1030 ET EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
1400 ET Minutes of the Jul 25-26 FOMC meeting.
ITA 0400 ET Italy Q2 GDP expected +0.4% q/q and +1.4% y/y, Q1 +0.4% q/q and +1.2% y/y.
UK 0430 ET UK Jul jobless claims change, Jun +5,900. Jul claimant count rate, Jun 2.3%.
0430 ET UK ILO unemployment rate expected unch at 4.5% for the three months through Jun, previous 4.5%
for the three months through May.
0430 ET UK Jun avg weekly earnings expected +1.8% 3-mo avg y/y, May +1.8% 3-mo avg y/y. Jun weekly earnings
ex-bonus expected +2.0% 3-mo avg y/y, May +2.0% 3-mo avg y/y.
EUR 0500 ET Eurozone Q2 GDP expected +0.6% q/q and +2.1% y/y, Q1 +0.5% q/q and +1.9% y/y.
JPN 1950 ET Japan Jul trade balance expected +327.1 billion yen, Jun +439.8 billion yen. Jul exports expected
+13.2% y/y, Jun +9.7% y/y. Jul imports expected +17.1% y/y, Jun +15.5% y/y.
Thu US 0830 ET Weekly initial unemployment claims expected -4,000 to 240,000, previous +3,000 to 244,000. Weekly
continuing claims expected +2,000 to 1.953 million, previous -16,000 to 1.951 million.
0830 ET Aug Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey general conditions expected -1.5 to 18.0, Jul -8.1 to 19.5.
0830 ET USDA weekly Export Sales.
0915 ET Jul industrial production expected +0.3%, Jun +0.4%. Jul manufacturing production expected +0.1%,
Jun +0.2%. Jul capacity utilization expected +0.1 to 76.7%, Jun +0.2 to 76.6%.
1000 ET Jul leading indicators expected +0.3%, Jun +0.6%.
1100 ET Treasury announces amount of 2-year floating-rate notes (previous $17 billion) to be auctioned Aug 23
and 5-year TIPS to be auctioned Aug 24 (previous $16 billion).
1300 ET Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan speaks to the Lubbock Chamber of Commerce. Text: No Q&A.
FRA 0130 ET France Q2 ILO unemployment rate expected -0.1 to 9.5%, Q1 -0.4 to 9.6%. Q2 mainland unemployment
change, Q1 -115,000.
UK 0430 ET UK Jul retail sales ex auto fuel expected +0.1% m/m and +1.2% y/y, Jun +0.9% m/m and +3.0% y/y.
RJO’BRIEN MARKET INSIGHTS – GLOBAL PREVIEWS & PERSPECTIVES
7
Global Financial & Commodity Event Calendar (continued)
0430 ET UK Jul retail sales including auto fuel expected +0.2% m/m and +1.4% y/y, Jun +0.6% m/m and +2.9%
y/y.
EUR 0500 ET Revised Eurozone Jul CPI, prelim-Jul +1.3% y/y. Revised Jul core CPI, prelim-Jul +1.2% y/y.
0730 ET ECB account of Jul 20 monetary policy meeting.
CAN 0830 ET Canada Jun manufacturing sales expected -1.0% m/m, May +1.1% m/m.
CHI 2130 ET China Jul property prices.
Fri US 1000 ET Preliminary-Aug University of Michigan U.S. consumer sentiment expected +0.7 to 94.1, Jul -1.7 to
93.4.
1015 ET Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan speaks at the Dallas County Community College District Conference.
GER 0200 ET German Jul PPI expected unch m/m and +2.2% y/y, Jun unch m/m and +2.4% y/y.
EUR 0500 ET Eurozone Jun construction output, May -0.7% m/m and +2.6% y/y.
CAN 0830 ET Canada Jul CPI expected unch m/m and +1.2% y/y, Jun -0.1% m/m and +1.0% y/y. Jul core CPI, Jun
+1.4% y/y.
Sun UK 1901 ET UK Aug Rightmove house prices, Jul +0.1% m/m and +2.8% y/y.
Week of Aug 21-25
Mon US 0830 ET Jul Chicago Fed national activity index, Jun +0.43 to 0.13.
1100 ET USDA weekly grain export inspections.
1600 ET USDA crop conditions and planting progress.
JPN 0030 ET Japan Jun all-industry activity index, May -0.9% m/m.
UK 0430 ET UK Jul public sector net borrowing, Jun +6.3 billion pounds.
CAN 0830 ET Canada Jun wholesale trade sales, May +0.9% m/m.
Tue US 0900 ET Jun FHFA house price index, May +0.4% m/m. Q2 house price purchase, Q1 +1.4% q/q.
1000 ET Aug Richmond Fed manufacturing index expected -4 to 10, Jul +3 to 14.
1500 ET USDA Jul Cold Storage.
GER 0500 ET German Aug ZEW survey expectations of economic growth, Jul -1.1 to 17.5. Aug ZEW survey current
situation, Jul -1.6 to 86.4.
UK 0600 ET UK Aug CBI trends total orders, Jul -6 to 10. Aug CBI trends selling prices, Jul -14 to 9.
CAN 0830 ET Canada Jun retail sales, May +0.6% and -0.1% ex autos.
Wed US 0700 ET Weekly MBA mortgage applications.
0945 ET Aug Markit manufacturing PMI, Jul +1.3 to 53.3. Aug Markit services PMI, Jul +0.5 to 54.7.
1000 ET Jul new home sales expected +0.4% to 613,000, Jun +0.8% to 610,000.
1030 ET EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
1300 ET Treasury auctions 2-year floating-rate notes.
JPN 0200 ET Revised Japan Jul machine tool orders, prelim-Jul +26.3% y/y.
2030 ET Japan Aug Nikkei manufacturing PMI, Jul -0.3 to 52.1.
FRA 0300 ET France Aug Markit manufacturing PMI, Jul +0.1 to 54.9. Aug Markit services PMI, Jul -0.9 to 56.0.
GER 0330 ET German Aug Markit/BME manufacturing PMI, Jul -1.5 to 58.1. Aug Markit services PMI, Jul -0.9 to
53.1.
EUR 0400 ET Eurozone Aug Markit manufacturing PMI, Jul -0.8 to 56.6. Aug Markit composite PMI, Jul -0.6 to
55.7.
Thu US 0830 ET Weekly initial unemployment claims. Weekly continuing claims.
0830 ET USDA weekly Export Sales.
1000 ET Jul existing home sales expected +0.7% to 5.56 million, Jun -1.8% to 5.52 million.
1100 ET Aug Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity, Jul -1 to 10.
1100 ET Treasury announces amount of 2-year T-notes (previous $26 billion), 5-year T-notes (previous $34 billion),
and 7-year T-notes (previous $28 billion) to be auctioned Aug 28-29.
1300 ET Treasury auctions 5-year TIPS.
n/a Kansas City Fed hosts its annual 3-day monetary symposium in Jackson Hole, WY, on “Fostering a DyRJO’BRIEN
MARKET INSIGHTS – GLOBAL PREVIEWS & PERSPECTIVES
8
Copyright & Disclaimer
Copyright, 2017, All rights reserved. R.J. O’Brien. R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC Disclaimer: This material has been prepared
by a sales or trading employee or agent of R.J. O’Brien and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not
a research report prepared by R.J. O’Brien’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are
an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and
will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS
MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION
INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS.
TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND
SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET
COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of
loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable
investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future
results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that R.J. O’Brien
believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as
such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no
guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE
DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO
ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT , THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY
ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL
PERFORMANCES RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT.
IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK AND NO HYPOTHETICAL
TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING.
FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM
IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR
TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED
FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY
AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.
namic Global Economy.â€
JPN 0100 ET Revised Japan Jun leading index CI, prelim-Jun +1.6 to 106.3. Revised Jun coincident index, prelim-Jun
+1.4 to 117.2.
1930 ET Japan Jul national CPI, Jun +0.4% y/y. Jul national CPI ex-fresh food, Jun +0.4% y/y. Jul national CPI
ex-food & energy, Jun unch y/y.
1930 ET Japan Aug Tokyo CPI, Jul +0.1% y/y. Aug Tokyo CPI ex-fresh food, Jul +0.2% y/y, Aug Tokyo CPI exfresh
food & energy, Jul -0.1% y/y.
1950 ET Japan Jul PPI services, Jun +0.8% y/y.
FRA 0245 ET France Aug business confidence, Jul +1 to 108. Aug production outlook indicator, Jul +5 to 21.
1200 ET France Jul total jobseekers, Jun 3,483,200. Jul jobseekers net change, Jun -10,900.
UK 0430 ET Revised UK Q2 GDP, previous +0.3% q/q and +1.7% y/y.
0430 ET UK Q2 total business investment, Q1 +0.6% q/q and +0.7% y/y.
0430 ET UK Jun index of services, May +0.2% m/m and +0.4% 3-mo/3-mo.
0600 ET UK Aug CBI retailing reported sales, Jul +10 to 22.
Fri US 0830 ET Jul durable goods orders expected -5.9% and +0.5% ex transportation, Jun +6.4% and +0.1% ex transportation.
Jul capital goods orders nondefense ex aircraft & parts expected +0.3%, Jun unch.
1500 ET USDA Jul Cattle on Feed.
GER 0200 ET Revised German Q2 GDP.
Global Financial & Commodity Event Calendar (continued)