-Oilseeds Crushings report tomorrow – SBO stocks set for possible surprise?
-No USDA sales announcements
-First notice day November soybean deliveries much heavier than expected
-Export Sales decent wheat, uninspiring soybeans/corn
 The USDA will release the monthly Oilseed Crushings report tomorrow afternoon at 2:00 PM CT. The average trade estimate of U.S. soybean crush in September is 161.8 million bushels (161.3-162.5 million range of ideas), down from 177.5 million August and well below last year’s Sept crush of 169.3 million bushels. The average estimate reflects U.S.-wide crush 6.1% above NOPA-member crush for the month of 152.6 million bushels, an appropriate estimate as nationwide crush averaged 6.1% above NOPA over the previous three months. The average estimate of end September U.S. soybean oil stocks is 1.792 billion pounds (1.721-1.850 billion range), down from 1.806 billion in August, which goes against NOPA-member Sept SBO stocks, which were up 42 million pounds from August. The average SBO stocks estimate is curious as it reflects U.S.-wide stocks just 24% above NOPA stocks, while they have actually averaged 33.1% above NOPA over the previous three months, and 30.0% above NOPA over the last six months, while U.S.-wide soybean oil stocks have not been less than 27.7% above NOPA stocks over the last four months. If soybean oil stocks relative to NOPA are similar to August’s +29.0%, they would be implied at 1.860 billion pounds, 68 million pounds above the average estimate.
ï‚· White House officials said they still aim to sign the Phase One trade deal with China in mid-November, the initial timeframe goal as President Trump and Chinese President Xi were set to meet at the APEC summit in Chile, but an alternative plan for the signing will be needed after Chile canceled the APEC summit due to violent protests in the country.
ï‚· There were no USDA sales announcements this morning.
 Malaysian palm oil/product exports in October rose to 1.522 MMT from 1.328 MMT in September and compared to last year’s Oct exports of 1.428 MMT.
ï‚· First notice day November soybean deliveries were heavy at 1,659 contacts, sharply larger than wire service-reported market expectations of 100-700 contracts and were mostly current with the last trade date of 10/29/19.
ï‚· Please see our Market Insights post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/37877 for details on the USDA Export Sales report.
ï‚· U.S. soybean sales were reported at 944k tonnes (34.7 million bushels), which were within market expectations of 500k-1.1 MMT, but actually appeared better than they really were as USDA revised last week’s sales down to just 12.5 million bushels from initial data reflecting net sales for the week of 17.5 million.
ï‚· U.S. corn sales last week of 549k tonnes (21.6 million bushels) were within market expectations of 300-800k tonnes, were up from the previous week’s 19.3 million bushels and were the best in four weeks, but hardly would be considered impressive or even encouraging.
ï‚· U.S. wheat sales of 494k tonnes (18.1 million bushels) were at the extreme top end of market expectations of 200-500k tonnes and rebounded from the previous week’s poor sales of just 9.6 million bushels, but were still below last year’s same-week sales of 21.4 million bushels. This week’s sales were best in three weeks and 2nd best of the last 7 weeks, though.
ï‚· Soybean meal sales of 179k tonnes were within market expectations of 100-250k tonnes, while soybean oil sales were solid at 30k tonnes (0- 24k expected).
Weather The current system will finish up across the eastern 2/3 of the Midwest in the next 24 hours, with .50-1â€+ expected in MI, northern IN and most of OH, primarily as rain, although the precip will change over to snow in MI and northern IN, with accumulations of 1-5†there. Additional snows of 1-3†will fall in NE MO and SE IA, with an additional 2-5†in the N 1/3 of IL and southern 1/3 of WI. The rest of the region will be dry today. Conditions look to quiet down across the Midwest for tomorrow, the weekend and much of next week. Below average precip is expected in general over the next 10-14 days. Rains of .50-1.5â€+ will fall across the northern Argentine growing regions from northern Entre Rios and Santa Fe into most of Corrientes in the next 5 days. Similar amounts will also fall in the southern Brazilian growing regions of RGDS, Santa Catarina and southern Parana in the next 5 days. Totals in the rest of the Brazilian growing regions look to be generally less than .35â€,with coverage of around 55%. The 6-10 day period sees rains of .30-.80â€+ to fall across around 75% of the Argentine growing regions, with rains of 1-2â€+ in most of the Brazilian growing regions.