-China reportedly pushing back against set quantity/dollar purchases of U.S. ag products
-Phase one November trade deal signing in jeopardy
-USDA reports small soybean sale to unknown
-Good South American rains in forecast – favorably drier U.S. conditions ahead
-Palm oil futures continue strong rally
ï‚· News sources are reporting an increasing reluctance/resistance by Chinese trade officials to commit to defined amounts of U.S. ag purchases as requested/demanded by President Trump as part of a Phase 1 agreement. President Trump has repeatedly pushed his agenda for a trade agreement to include concrete amounts, either dollar or quantity, of various U.S. ag products at set/established times. However, Chinese sources knowledgeable of the trade talks have stated their desire to make market-based purchases of U.S. ag products as pricing and demand dictates as pre-set/fixed purchases could very well not be economical, going directly against free market initiatives the U.S. has pushed for China in other sectors, and potentially distort China’s supply/demand structure if they are forced to import set quantities at times when demand does not dictate the need for those imports. China importing U.S. ag products against market-deciding factors, i.e. cheapest available source, would require state intervention, it was stated, essentially resulting in subsidizing purchases, which is directly against U.S.-demanded free market reform. Quite frankly, the whole idea China would be forced to buy massive amounts of U.S. ag products of “X†MMT/â€X†billions of dollars regardless of price and/or demand/need as part of a trade deal has always been absurd, in our opinion. A U.S. official said yesterday the Phase One deal may not be ready for signing at the upcoming summit in Chile November 16-17 as desired.
ï‚· USDA reported the sale of 132k tonnes of soybeans to unknown for 2019/20 delivery this morning.
ï‚· Taiwan bought 63k tonnes of Brazilian corn at 148 cents +CH20 c&f for Jan shipment (~$214/tonne), with traders stating it appears only Brazilian corn was offered. South Korea bought 69k tonnes of optional origin corn (likely Brazil), after tendering for 140k, at $206.55/tonne c&f for Feb 5 arrival.
 Ag and energy industry officials will make their feelings known at an EPA public hearing in Ann Arbor, MI today as the biofuels debate continues on. Today’s public hearing follows yesterday’s U.S. House of Representatives Energy and Commerce Committee hearing to discuss the RFS small refinery waiver program.
ï‚· Malaysian palm oil futures surged higher overnight following sharp gains in palm oil on the Dalian exchange, as well. Dalian palm oil has rallied 10% in the month of October alone and is up 25% from lows established in mid-July.
ï‚· Ethiopia again postponed their tender for 400k tonnes of wheat, this time to November 14 from November 5, which was earlier postponed from the initial tender deadline of October 23. A separate tender for 200k tonnes of wheat was also delayed to November 13 from October 29 previously, as well.
 Egypt ended up buying 235k tonnes of wheat following their tender of Monday, with 115k tonnes Ukrainian and 60k tonnes each of French and Romanian, with prices ranging from $234.55-$236.16/tonne c&f. In their previous purchase on October 16, prices ranged from $229.42-$231.24/tonne c& and included Russian, which did not capture any of yesterday’s business.  First notice day for November soybean deliveries is tomorrow with solid deliveries around 1,000 contracts expected.
Weather The current system will continue to bring precip to the eastern 2/3 of the Midwest. Rains of .40-1â€, with areas of 1â€+, will fall in eastern IL, as well as most of MI, IN and OH. Snows of 2-5†will fall across the northern 1/3 of MO and far SE IA, with snow totals of 3-7†in the northern 1/3 of IL and far NW IN. Some wet snows will be possible following the rains across the rest of IL, most of IN and MI, as well as western OH, although accumulations there look to be around an inch or less. Things then look to quiet down across the Midwest for Friday, the weekend and much of next week. There is a weak front indicated to work through the region by around Tuesday of next week. At this point totals look to be around .30†or less, with coverage of around 50% and no strong bias to the rainfall outlay. Rains of .50-1.5â€+ will fall across the Argentine growing regions from northern Buenos Aries north, as well as into the southern Brazilian growing states of RGDS and Santa Catarina in the next 5 days. Totals in the rest of the Brazilian growing regions look to be generally less than .35†with coverage of around 55%. The 6-10 day period now sees rains of .30-.80â€+ to fall across around 75% of the Argentine growing regions, with rains of 1-2â€+ in most of the Brazilian growing regions. Only the far northern Brazilian growing regions look to see rains of less than 1â€.