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-US forecast wetter than previous ideas
-USDA reports at 11:00 AM CT
-Brazilian soybean export ideas raised
-China raises corn/vegoil import ideas
-EPA grants small refiner waiver requests
-Trade estimate summary for today's USDA reports
 
USDA’s long-awaited August Crop Production and WASDE reports will be released today at 11:00 AM CT. Our pre-report commentary/analysis can be found on Market Insights at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/36922. A summary of the trade estimates is on page 3. The FSA’s first reporting of Prevent Planting claims will also be out at 11:00 AM, as well today. Keep in mind the FSA’s data reflects a running total of claims so far, not an estimate of total numbers for the year. FSA data is released each month through final data in January reflecting changes as they are filed by farmers. Weather maps are showing greater rainfall amounts over the coming 10-day period than indicated heading to the weekend.
 
 Brazil’s vegoil association ABIOVE solidly raised their estimate of current marketing year Brazilian soybean exports to 72.0 MMT from 68.1 MMT previously estimated, but still down notably from last year’s 84.2 MMT record, as the ongoing US/Chinese trade war pushes demand to Brazil. ABIOVE lowered their estimate of Brazilian soybean ending stocks to 2.6 MMT from 5.6 MMT estimated last month, while USDA is last at 4.6 MMT and compares to last year’s ending stocks of 2.4 MMT.
 China raised their estimate of 2018/19, old crop, corn imports to 4.0 MMT from 3.3 MMT previously due to replacement of reduced sorghum imports from the U.S., while the USDA is currently estimating this year’s imports at 5.0 MMT. China left their 2019/20 corn import estimate unchanged at 3.0 MMT, while USDA reflects much higher import ideas at 7.0 MMT. China corn crop estimate was left unchanged from last month at 253.4 MMT and compares to last year’s 257.3 MMT crop, while their 2019/20 corn stocks are estimated to decline by 24.4 MMT from this year, unchanged from last month, and compares to 2018/19’s decline of 22.0 MMT. China does not provide actual stocks estimates, but instead reflects the expected change in total stocks from the previous year. USDA’s numbers reflect an expected 18 MMT decline in corn stocks in 2019/20 and a 12.7 MMT decline in 2018/19. China’s official 2019/20 soybean balance sheet situation was unchanged from last month, with new crop imports left at 84.9 MMT (USDA 87.0 MMT), but they did lower old crop, 2018/19, imports to 83.5 MMT from 85.0 MMT previously (USDA 85.0 MMT), while the country’s soybean ending stocks for 2019/20 are estimated to decline 1.6 MMT from this year and compares to 2018/19’s 3.6 MMT expected decline, reflecting a larger drop than estimated last month of 2.1 MMT. China raised their 2019/20 total vegoils import estimate to 6.91 MMT from 6.73 MMT last month and compares to 7.11 MMT in 2018/19, up from last month’s estimated 6.55 MMT. They raised their estimate of 2018/19 palm oil imports to 4.3 MMT from 4.00 MMT previously, but declining back to 4.05 MMT in 19/20, with old crop rapeseed oil imports raised to 1.25 MMT from 0.93 MMT previously and estimated at 1.1 MMT in 2019/20. Soybean oil import estimates were unchanged from last month at 500k tonnes for 2018/19 and 600k for 2019/20.
 IKAR further slightly lowered their estimate of the Russian wheat crop to 75.0 MMT from 75.5 MMT previously, but remains above USDA’s 74.2 MMT estimate and last year’s 71.7 MMT.
 Sovecon estimates Russian wheat exports in August will be 3.8 MMT vs 2.936 MMT in July and 4.7 MMT last year August.
 Indonesia’s president is reportedly calling for the country’s biodiesel blending mandate to increase to a B30 blend by January 2020 from the current B20 guideline put in place last September. The country’s energy ministry previously estimated an increase to a nationwide B30 blend would result in annual biodiesel consumption of around 2.5 billion gallons from the 1.6 billion gallons with a B20 blend. Just-released data showed 2019 Jan-July biodiesel consumption was 2.95 million kiloliters (780 mil gallons), mostly on pace with current annual projections.
 China sold 72.7k tonnes (54.4% of offered amount) of soybeans in this week’s state reserve auction, by far the largest amount in the last 7 weeks’ auctions, as the last four auctions were all under 3k tonnes. So far, 518k tonnes of soybeans have been sold through the state reserve auctions vs 1.22 MMT at this time last year.
 South Korea bought 60k tonnes of optional-origin corn in a private deal at $216.50/tonne c&f for November 10 arrival.
 The EPA granted 31 of the 40 pending small refinery waiver requests from biofuel blending mandates for the 2018 compliance year, as expected but still infuriating the corn/ethanol lobby. 2017 saw 35 of the 37 requests granted. Weather The forecast is a bit wetter than the weekend model runs presented. Close to average rains (.75-1.5”+) look to fall across most of the region in the next 10 days. Most of the rains in the next 5 days look to fall in the next 2 days and then Canadian high pressure will build in and produce mainly dry weather and mild temps. Totals in the next 5 days look to be in the .50-1” range in most areas, with only the southern ½ of MO, IL and IN to see generally less than .30”. Building heat then looks to produce rains of .30-1” across most of MN, IA, WI and NW IL Friday, with things remaining mostly dry elsewhere. A pair of cold fronts next week then look to bring more rains to the region. The European sees rains of .50-1”+ to favor MN, WI and N IA, as well as into central IL and northern IN. The GFS indicates most of the region to see rains of .50-1”, with areas of 1”+. Temps will run average to below average across the region in the next 4 days, with highs in the upper 70s to 80s and then look to warm to above average for Friday and the weekend, with highs in the upper 80s to mid-90s. Cooling back into the 70s and 80s looks to occur as we head through the first half of next week. The 11-16 day outlook sees a fairly west to east flow, perhaps with even a bit of a NW flow to keep temps in the average to slightly below average range and precip running average to a bit below across most of the Midwest.
Capitol Commodity Services/R.J. O'Brien & Associates, LLC Disclaimer: This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of R.J. O’Brien and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by R.J. O’Brien’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that R.J. O’Brien believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

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