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-China reportedly requesting US tariff reductions for Phase 1 trade deal agreement
-Cattle on Feed report this afternoon
-No USDA sales announcements
-Wetter US seen next week, but forecasts continue to differ

 High level U.S. and Chinese trade officials are scheduled to hold talks today via phone to discuss details of the “phase one†trade deal, which they hope to have in place for signing in mid-November at the Apec meeting in Chile. As part of the deal, sources say China is requesting the U.S. cancel existing U.S. tariffs on some Chinese products, as well as planned tariffs on cell phones, laptop computers and toys, among other products, set to go into effect December 15. China’s goal is to reduce tariffs to the original $250 billion in Chinese products implemented at the start of the trade war vs the roughly $550 billion in tariffs on essentially all Chinese products which would be in effect as of Dec 15. In exchange, it is believed China will drop the import tariffs on U.S. ag products, including soybeans, corn and wheat, which would allow trade activity to return to a typical pricecompetitive situation with other global supplies.

ï‚· A Chinese official, at a Beijing seminar, said China is willing to increase ag and industrial imports from Brazil (sound familiar?) in order enhance bilateral trade, while also seeking to deepen infrastructure cooperation, as well.

ï‚· This afternoon, USDA will release the monthly Cattle on Feed report at 2:00 PM CT. The average trade estimate of On Feed as of October 1 is 98.9% of last year (97.7-99.8 range of ideas) and would be the 2nd consecutive month of lower year-over-year on feed numbers in what would be the first such occurrence since November and December 2016. Sept 1 on feed was 98.7% of last year. The average estimate of September placements is 101.6% of last year (95.1-107.6 range) vs 91.0 in August, while September marketings are estimated at 100.9% of last year (98.2-101.5 range) vs 98.5% in August.

 France’s corn harvest is 46% complete, continuing to make solid gains rising from 30% last week and 14% two weeks ago. Soft wheat planting is now 29% complete vs 21% last week, but well behind last year’s very fast 50%.

ï‚· Ukraine winter wheat planting is 91% complete vs roughly 96% at this time last year.

ï‚· China reported a new African swine fever case in Yunnan province.

ï‚· There were no USDA sales announcements this morning.

Weather Rains of .50-1â€, isolated to 1â€+, are expected for MO, IL, IN, MI and OH, with totals of generally less than .35†elsewhere, tomorrow. The best chances for totals over 1†are in southern MO, IL and IN and lessening further north and west. Next week’s outlook remains mixed between the models but a bit of moderation between the two has been seen. The European model is a bit less aggressive with the precip, indicating rains of .50-1â€+ to fall in southern MO/WI and most of IL, IN and OH, with snows of 3-6†falling in far NW MO, most of IA and central WI. The GFS has become wetter, with rains of .30-.80†falling in southern IL and most of IN/OH. Rains of .50-1.5â€+ will fall across the northern Brazilian state of Mato Grosso as well as into the southern states of RGDS, Santa Catarina and Parana in the next 5 days. Similar totals will also fall in the Argentine growing regions in the next 5 days. Totals in the rest of the Brazilian growing regions look to be in the .20-.60†range in the next 5 days. The 6-10 day period sees rains of .50-1.5â€+ to fall in the southern Brazilian growing states of RGDS, Santa Catarina and Parana, with totals of .20-.60†in the rest of the Brazilian growing regions and most of the Argentine growing regions.

CCSTrade
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