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-Brazil raises corn crop/export estimates
-China lowers corn demand ideas
-US/China trade talk concerns rising again
-EU wheat crop ideas slipping lower
-USDA reports today, trade estimate summary included
-Export Sales uninspiring all around
 
USDA’s Crop Production and WASDE reports will be released today at 11:00 AM CT. Our pre-report commentary/analysis can be found at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/36557. A summary of the average trade estimates is on the following page.
 
 CONAB solidly raised their estimate of this year’s safrinha corn crop to 72.4 MMT from 70.7 MMT last month and now reflects an 18.5 MMT (34%) increase from last year’s 53.9 MMT, with the total corn crop now estimated at 98.5 MMT vs 97.0 MMT last month and 80.7 MMT last year. Accordingly, CONAB solidly raised their estimate of this year’s corn exports to 33.5 MMT from 32.0 MMT last month and would be up nearly 10 MMT from last year’s 23.8 MMT. CONAB’s estimates are still slightly below USDA’s official estimates, though, of 101.0 MMT production and 34.0 MMT exports. CONAB’s estimate of the Brazilian soybean crop ticked higher to 115.0 MMT from 114.8 MMT last month and compares to 119.3 MMT, while their export estimate was unchanged from last month at 68.0 MMT and is down sharply from last year’s 83.3 MMT. USDA last estimated their crop at 117.0 MMT and exports at 69.0 MMT.
 Concerns are increasing once again over prospects for a U.S./China trade deal anytime soon as China appears to have changed up its negotiating team with the country’s Commerce Minister Zhong Shan taking a prominent role in this week’s teleconference calls along with Vice Premier Liu He who has been involved since early stages. Shan is considered to be a hard-liner on trade issues and is expected to take a tougher stance on issues than He has in the past.
 China’s monthly update of supply/demand factors saw a 2 MMT reduction in corn domestic usage from previous ideas for 2019/20 to 280 MMT due to slowing demand as a result of African swine fever. USDA last estimated their total domestic usage in 2019/20 at 279 MMT, with last year at 275 MMT. China’s latest official numbers show the country’s sow herd down nearly 24% from last year, although many private ideas reflect even more substantial losses. China slightly lowered their estimate of this year’s corn crop to 253.4 MMT from 254.4 MMT previously and compares to 257.3 MMT last year. China estimates total corn stocks for 2019/20 will decline 24.4 MMT from this year vs an estimated 25.5 MMT previously. China did not make any material changes to soybean ideas with 2019/20 imports left at 84.9 MMT (85.0 MMT last year) and ending stocks expected to decline 1.6 MMT from last year.
 Strategie Grains lowered their estimate of the EU soft wheat crop to 140.6 MMT from 142.8 MMT previously, but still reflects a solid improvement from last year’s very poor crop of 127.1 MMT. The EU corn crop was ticked lower to 62.7 MMT form 63.4 MMT last month and compares to 61.7 MMT last year.
 Russia’s Ag Ministry confirmed their previous ideas of the total grain crop this year of 118 MMT, with wheat exports expected to be 36.0 MMT. USDA last estimated their wheat exports this year at 37.0 MMT. Last year’s exports were 35.2 MMT. Wheat crop ideas were left unchanged at 75.0 MMT vs 71.7 MMT last year, but is below USDA’s 78.0 MMT estimate. Total grain exports are seen at 45.0 MMT this year vs 43.3 MMT in 2018/19.
 China’s weekly state reserve corn auction saw 748k tonnes of the 3.97 MMT offered sold at an average price of $244/tonne ($6.20/bu). So far 17.0 MMT of corn has been sold through auctions vs 53.7 MMT at this time last year.
 Following a good week of monsoon rains, providing above average amounts for the first time in five weeks, the India Meteorological Department sees prospects for below average rains again for the coming two-week period, with central and western growing regions (soybeans/cotton) already seeing a notable deficit in activity relative to average. Longer-range ideas are more optimistic for a resumption of good activity beginning in the last week of July.
 Please see our Market Insights post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/36623 for details on the USDA Export Sales report.
 U.S. corn sales were 505k tonnes (19.9 million bushels), beating very modest market expectations of 150-400k tonnes and were actually the best in six weeks. Unfortunately, they were still solidly below the roughly 25.4 million bushels/week we estimate sales are “needed” based on the USDA’s export estimate. New crop saw net cancellations of 4.3 million bushels by Japan.
 U.S. soybean sales were reported at just 132k tonnes (4.9 million bushels), below muted market expectations of 200-400k tonnes, but in actuality were even lower and USDA revised last week's sales down to 29.5 million bushels from 31.9 million originally reported. Without the revision, this week's sales would have been just 2.5 million bushels.
 U.S. wheat sales of 284k tonnes (10.4 million bushels) were at the bottom end of market expectations of 250-550k tonnes.
 U.S. soybean meal sales were just 45k tonnes vs expectations of 50-200k and followed minimal sales the previous two weeks of 16.8k and 28.6k tonnes. Soybean oil sales were 8.5k tonnes vs expectations of 5-25k tonnes
Weather
Rains in the next 5 days look to favor MN and N. IA, but even there, totals look to be in the .20-.60” range. Totals elsewhere look to be generally under .35” and coverage of around 45%. The forecast for next week sees the remnants of the tropical system getting organized in the northern Gulf to track up the lower MS River Valley and then bring rains of 1-2” to the OH River Valley the first half of next week. Totals elsewhere across the region next week look to be generally less than .35”, although there is an area of .50-1”+ rains indicated for much of IA. Temps will be running near average across the region as a whole in the next 3-4 days, with above average temps to take over for the 6-10 day period. 

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