After a back and forth session overnight, grain markets firmed ahead of the break with modest gains in corn, wheat and soybeans. Near-term planting activity is likely to remain minimal in many locations, with all eyes remaining on the extended guidance showing the potential for warmer/drier conditions. Acreage ideas remain all over the board given the considerable number of variables at play.
Due to the holiday on Monday, this week’s EIA ethanol data will be released today, while Export Sales will be out on Friday. CFTC COT data will still be released Friday, as usual.
 A Bloomberg article citing unnamed sources indicated China is not expected to outright cancel the remaining 7 MMT of outstanding U.S. soybean purchases on the books, but has no plans to return to the U.S. market anytime soon given the reescalation of trade tensions. If China does not ship the 7 MMT currently on the books during the 2018/19 marketing year, the USDA’s export projection is very likely to prove too high, adding bushels the bottom line of the old crop balance sheet and, accordingly, top line of new crop.
ï‚· A nationwide strike involving various trade unions in Argentina halted operations at Rosario grain ports, with airports, local transportation and other operations impacted, as well.
 A Brazilian consultancy group said they see only 34.0-34.5% of this year’s Brazilian sugar cane allocation going to sugar production, a historically low proportion, with the greater portion going to ethanol production amid the better prices/demand offered for it vs sugar.
ï‚· A South Korean feedmill bought 60k tonnes each corn ($213.99/tonne c&f), feed wheat ($216.00/tonne c&f) and soybean meal ($382.50/tonne c&f) , all for FH Nov arrival.
Weather
A backing down on the rains still looks to occur for the next 10 days. The current system will work through the eastern Midwest in the next 24 hours. Totals across most of IL, IN, and OH, as well as southern WI/MI look to be in the .35†range or less in most cases. Friday looks to be mainly dry in all areas, with an area of showers and thunderstorms to bring totals of .10-.50†to all but southern IA and most of MO Saturday/Sunday. Ideas for the first half of next week sees a disturbance to bring rains to much of the region. The models are in better agreement on the ideas with totals, with most amounts under .50â€. Most of the rest of next week looks to be dry and then some moderate rains look to work into MO and SW IA by the following weekend. The 11-16 day time frame still indicates some ridging to produce below average precip and above average temps in much of the Plains and Midwest for the first half of the period. A breakdown of the ridge is seen to bring moderate rains for the second half of the period. A fairly active pattern will continue to bring above average precip to the winter wheat fields of the southern Plains in the next 10 days. Totals in the west do not look to be as heavy as they have been in the past several weeks, but will remain heavy in the east.
Capitol Commodity Services/R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC Disclaimer: This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of R.J. O’Brien and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by R.J. O’Brien’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that R.J. O’Brien believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.