You are here

07 Dec 2018

#Grain #Futures Comments

admin's picture


-Wheat moves lower following Russian grain meeting results in no export curbs and raised export estimate
-India considering modest corn imports
-Argentine wheat crop estimate maintained despite rain/frost concerns
-USDA reports modest corn/soybean sales
-South American weather forecast remains favorable


Wheat was lower overnight with losses accelerating heading into the break following Russian grain meeting resulting in no export curbs being put in place. Soybeans finished the overnight session with minimal losses, while corn was slightly higher. Equity markets look near unchanged in early trade following yesterday’s sharp sell-off once again. Grain markets will close at noon on Monday, Christmas Eve. Markets will re-open at 8:30 AM CT on Wednesday.
 The Russian Ag Ministry’s meeting with grain traders today resulted in the government raising their total grain export estimate to 42.0 MMT from 38-39 MMT previously expected and no export limitations being planned at this time. Wheat export expectations were raised to 37 MMT from 35 MMT previously, putting them slightly above the USDA’s current 36.5 MMT estimate. Traders expect total Russian grain exports during the coming Jan-June period to be around 14 MMT. Russian officials and the country’s grain traders will next meet in February for another update on the overall situation.
 Egypt’s GASC wheat purchase yesterday of Ukrainian and Romanian wheat reflected the first time since June in which Russian wheat was not purchased following a tender.
 The Indian government said they are “positively” considering the livestock industry’s request to import 1 MMT of non-GMO corn to help curb rising prices following last year’s poor crop. India is typically a small next exporter of corn and has not imported more than 250k tonnes in a single year in decades. USDA is currently estimating their corn imports at 500k tonnes this year.
 The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange maintained their estimate of the Argentine wheat crop at 19.0 MMT despite recent concerns of modest damage/losses from heavy rains and late-season frosts in some locations. They said 68% of the crop has been harvested, making a solid 11% advancement in the last week, while 82% of the crop is in average to very good condition. The USDA last estimated the Argentine wheat crop at 19.5 MMT vs last year’s 18.5 MMT. The USDA sees their wheat exports this year rising to 14.2 MMT from 12.0 MMT last year.
 Adding to the list of recent additions to allowed grain imports, China approved Bolivian soybean imports effective immediately. As with other import approvals of late, this is likely to have very little impact as Bolivia has exported minimal amounts of soybeans in recent years, with their all-time record exports being 523k tonnes in 2012/13.
 USDA reported sales to unknown of 115.5k tonnes of soybeans and 222.5k tonnes of corn for 2018/19 delivery this morning. 
Capitol Commodity Services/R.J. O'Brien & Associates, LLC Disclaimer: This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of R.J. O’Brien and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by R.J. O’Brien’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that R.J. O’Brien believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. 



Get in touch

  • Capitol Commodity Hedging Services, Inc

          3905 Vincennes Road Suite 303


          IN 46268
  • 1-800-876-8050
  • 317-848-8050

Latest Tweets

Lannie Cohen (7 minutes ago)
#Soybean #Futures Reversed Up for a BUY Signal:
Lannie Cohen (1 hour ago)
Today's Economic & #Commodity #Futures Perspectives US/Chinese trade talks remain on thin ice as President Trump s…
Lannie Cohen (1 hour ago)
Today's Economic & #Commodity #Futures Perspectives US/Chinese trade talks remain on thin ice as President Trump s…
Lannie Cohen (14 hours ago) #futures #commodities #oil #gold #trading #bitcoin #forex #futures #market #stocks #plan
Lannie Cohen (15 hours ago) #futures #commodities #oil #gold #trading #bitcoin #forex #futures #market #stocks #plan