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06 Dec 2018

#Grain #Futures Comments

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-Stats Canada bumps up wheat crop estimate, lowers canola
-Argentina strikes deal to export SBO to China - SBM a no-go
-USDA reports corn sales to Mexico
-Egyptian wheat tender sees good interest - Russian wheat lowest offer
-Ukraine corn crop estimate above USDA ideas
-Improved Argentine rains in the forecast
U.S. equity and commodity markets appear set for a possible broad sell-off today, with S&Ps under notable pressure this morning, crude oil and RBOB posting losses of more than 3%, and soybeans extending losses late in the overnight session heading into the break. The dollar is also under modest pressure this morning, as well. The USDA’s monthly WASDE report will be released next Tuesday. A summary of the average trade estimates is on the following page. Export Sales will be released on Friday and CFTC data pushed to Monday. EIA’s weekly ethanol and energy reports will be out today.
 Statistics Canada issued updated crop production estimates this morning, with the all wheat crop put at 31.769 MMT, slightly above the average trade estimate of 31.4 MMT (30.4-32.2 MMT range of ideas), up from their last estimate in September of 31.019 MMT and up from last year’s 29.984 MMT. USDA last estimated their all wheat crop at 31.5 MMT. The spring wheat crop of 23.511 MMT was revised up from 22.910 MMT in September and compares to last year’s 22.167 MMT. The canola crop was revised down to 20.343 MMT from 21.0 MMT estimated in September and was below the average trade estimate of 20.8 MMT (20.3-21.3 MMT range) and compares to last year’s 21.3 MMT. The oat crop was revised to 3.436 MMT from 3.383 MMT in Sept, while expectations were for a decline to 3.2 MMT. Last year’s crop was 3.733 MMT. The soybean crop was revised to 7.267 MMT from 7.515 MMT in Sept and compared to average expectations of 7.4 MMT and last year’s 7.717 MMT.
 An Argentine official said negotiations at last weekend’s G20 summit resulted in an agreement with China where they will buy 300-400k tonnes of soybean oil from Argentina in the coming marketing year, reflecting a notable increase in from just the 120k tonnes in total Argentine soybean oil exports to China over the last three years and essentially zero during 2016 and 2018. Argentina was also seeking agreements for China to import Argentine soybean meal, but Chinese officials were “not interested” in pursuing that situation at this time.
 USDA reported the sale of 198k tonnes of corn to Mexico, with 107k for 2018/19 and 91k for 2019/20.
 After the close yesterday, Egypt tendered for an unspecified amount of wheat for Jan 21-31 shipment. The four lowest offers received were all Russian, ranging from $252.30-253.90/tonne c&f, with Ukrainian wheat offered at $253.95/tonne c&f and Romanian at $254.34-$254.89/tonne c&f. No U.S. wheat was offered in this tender. Interest in the tender was strong, as 12 offers totaling 710k tonnes were made, indicating there wasn’t much concern over GASC’s recent delays in issuing letters of credit for past purchases made for shipment periods from Nov 11-Jan 20.
 Ukraine’s national research institute said the country’s corn crop is now expected to reach 35.2 MMT, which would be solidly above the USDA’s last official estimate of 33.5 MMT, up 46% from last year’s drought-reduced crop of 24.1 MMT, and easily record high in surpassing 2013/14’s 30.9 MMT.
 Algeria is thought to have purchased 40k tonnes of Argentine corn at $204.37/tonne c&f for LH Dec shipment, and 40k tonnes of Argentina/US optional-origin soybean meal at $376.20/tonne c&f for FH Jan shipment.
 Taiwan bought 110k tonnes of U.S. wheat in two consignments, with the first shipping Jan 22-Feb 5 and the 2nd Feb 7-21. Both included multiple varieties of wheat. The first shipment period included 12.5% protein HRW priced at $283.31/tonne c&f, 14.5% protein DNS at $286.95/tonne c&f and 9% soft white wheat at $262.98/tonne c&f. To put this in perspective of the Egyptian purchase, 12.5% pro US HRW to Taiwan was sold at $255.62/tonne fob vs the Russia sale, also 12.5% pro, to GASC at $236.30/tonne fob 

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