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-Brazilian and Argentine soybean and corn crop ideas all raised
-USDA sees continued significant decline in Chinese hog numbers
-Export Sales disappointing for corn, wheat, soybeans
-Mild El Nino expected throughout U.S. summer
-EU wheat crop estimate ticked lower
 
 CONAB marginally raised their estimate of the Brazilian soybean crop to 113.8 MMT from 113.5 MMT last month and compares to USDA last at 117.0 MMT and last year’s CONAB-estimated crop of 119.3 MMT (USDA at 122.0 MMT last year). The estimated Brazil’s soybean exports for the new marketing year (Feb-Jan) to be 70 MMT, unchanged from last month, in line with USDA’s 69.5 MMT and down sharply from last year’s 83.6 MMT. CONAB solidly raised their estimate of the safrinha (2nd) corn crop to 68.1 MMT from 66.6 MMT last month and compares to last year’s 53.9 MMT, while the 1st crop was ticked lower to 25.9 MMT from 26.2 MMT last month and last year’s 26.8 MMT. In total, they see the corn crop at 94.0 MMT vs 92.8 MMT last month and 80.7 MMT last year, while USDA last put their corn crop at 96.0 MMT. CONAB sees this year’s Brazilian corn exports at 31.0 MMT, unchanged from last month and up sharply from last year’s 24.8 MMT. USDA is also at 31.0 MMT.
 Strategie Grains slightly lowered their estimate of the 2019/20 EU soft wheat crop 144.8 MMT from 146.1 MMT last month, but remains up solidly from last year’s 127.2 MMT and above the 2017/18 crop of 142.1 MMT. Their updated EU corn crop estimate of 63.1 MMT is nearly unchanged from last month’s 63.0 MMT and up modestly from last year’s 61.6 MMT. EU barley production is seen at 61.0 MMT vs 61.8 MMT last month/55.8 MMT last year.
 The Rosario Grains Exchange raised their estimate of Argentina’s soybean crop to 56.0 MMT from 54.0 MMT previously and compares to the USDA at 55.0 MMT and last year’s 37.8 MMT. The exchange also raised their Argentine corn crop estimate to 48.0 MMT from 47.3 MMT previously and compares to USDA last at 47.0 MMT and last year’s 32.0 MMT.
ï‚· The U.S. Climate Prediction Center sees a 65% chance for a mild El Nino to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer, which typically holds a modestly positive bias for non-threatening weather conditions.
 South Korea reportedly bought 60k tonnes of food-quality U.S. corn at $212.20/tonne c&f for May/June shipment. For reference, South Korea’s most-recent purchase of feed corn, believed to be Argentine, was made at around $188.50/tonne c&f for Nov arrival.
 A recent global livestock report by USDA reflected their expectations for China’s total hog herd to decline to 350 million head by the end of 2019 vs 428 million head as of late January and would be down 18% year-over-year and the lowest year end level since 1988. Slaughterhouses are expected to process more than 70 million fewer hogs in 2019 than last year. Total pork production in 2019 is expected to decline “only†10% though as higher carcass weights partially offset the lower head count. The USDA sees China importing 2.2 MMT of pork in 2019, up 41% from last year, with most of the increase being supplied by Europe, Brazil and Canada. For reference, 2018 total global pork trade was 8.45 MMT. Separately, the World Pork Expo held in Des Moines in June was cancelled as a preventative measure to limit the risks of African Swine Fever being brought into the U.S.
ï‚· U.S. soybean sales were just 270k tonnes (9.9 million bushels), sharply below market expectations of 800k-1.150 MMT and compared to last year’s very strong same-week sales of 53.6 million bushels. In the last four weeks in which China was not a buyer, soybean sales averaged just 10.5 million bushels.
ï‚· U.S. corn sales last week of 548k tonnes (21.6 million bushels) were below market expectations of 600-950k tonnes, were nearly unchanged from the previous week’s 21.2 million bushels and were below last year’s same-week sales of 33.1 million bushels.
ï‚· Old crop wheat sales were 273k tonnes (10.0 million bushels), below expectations of 300-500k tonnes and down from the previous week’s 26.0 million bushels. New crop sales this week were 201k tonnes (7.4 million bushels) vs market expectations of 0-200k and brought 2019/20 total commitments to 51.2 million bushels, modestly above last year’s historically low new crop sales at this time of 42.1 million bushels.
ï‚· U.S. soybean meal sales of 152k tonnes were in line with expectations of 100-300k tonnes and compared to the previous week’s 190k and last year’s same-week sales of 317k tonnes, but still easily met the roughly 105k tonnes/week they need to average in order to reach the USDA’s export program. SBO sales of 33.8k tonnes slightly beat market expectations of 8-30k tonnes and were similar to the previous week’s 36.7k tonnes, while beating last year’s same-week sales of 22.0k. 
 

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