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15 Apr 2019

#Grain #Futures Comments

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-NOPA crush data today
-USDA reports old crop soybean sales
-Russian wheat crop ideas raised to near record
-Funds return to record short in corn
-US weather pattern remains active
 
 NOPA soybean crush data for March will be released today at 11:00 AM CT. The average trade estimate of March NOPA crush is 168.0 million bushels (155.0-171.4 million range) and compares to 154.5 million in February and 171.9 million last year. End March soybean oil stocks of NOPA members are estimated at 1.783 billion pounds vs 1.752 billion in Feb and 1.946 billion last year. The range of ideas is 1.702-1.872 billion pounds.
 SovEcon raised their estimate of Russia’s coming 2019/20 wheat crop to 83.4 MMT from 80.0 MMT previously given the overall good condition of the crop. A notable increase from last year’s poor crop of 71.7 MMT is expected, while their new estimate is only slightly below 2017/18’s record 85.2 MMT.
 The USDA reported 140k tonnes of soybeans were sold to unknown for 2018/19 delivery.
 SovEcon estimates Russia will export 1.8 MMT of wheat in April, down slightly from earlier expectations of 1.9 MMT and would compare to last year’s April exports of 3.268 MMT.
 US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said US and Chinese officials held additional phone discussions/negotiations last week as both sides move closer to an agreement, while saying he wasn’t sure if additional face-to-face meetings will be necessary. However, there was no indication of a potential timeframe on the finalization of a deal.
 China’s Ministry of Commerce confirmed they were beginning to start a review on their anti-dumping duties on imports of U.S. DDGS, as requested by the U.S., and that the investigation should be completed in a year.
 Friday’s CFTC COT data showed funds moving back to a record net short position of nearly 272k contracts after adding 25k new net shorts for the week ended 4/09/19. Funds were small net buyers for the week in soybeans of 2.9k contracts (net short 71k), 2.2k CBOT wheat (net short 54k), 3.8k SMB (net short 8.6k) and net buyers of 2.0k KCBT wheat (net short 48k). Funds were net sellers of 7.3k MPLS wheat (net short 9.5k) and 46k SBO (net short 31.6k).
 China’s Heilongjiang province will lower the subsidies paid to soybean growers by 16% from last year, while raising subsidies paid to corn producers, but they would still remain well below those paid for soybeans.
 Egypt accepted the French wheat cargo that was initially rejected due to high ergot fungus levels after re-testing it. 
  

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