-China returns to US soybean market – USDA announces sales
-China raises soybean import estimate, but still below USDA
-EU wheat crop prospects look strong
-India expected to lower corn import duty – issue tender
-China Feb soybean imports 4-year low
-USDA reports today at 11 AM CT – trade estimate summary
USDA will release the monthly WASDE report today at 11:00 AM CT. A summary of trade estimates is on the following page.
 USDA announced the sale of 664k tonnes of soybeans to China for 2018/19 delivery this morning. China returned to the U.S. market yesterday for the first time since comments were made during trade negotiations they would buy another 10 MMT at some point. Traders’ comments yesterday indicated ideas they may have bought anywhere from 1.5-3.5 MMT.
 China raised their estimate of 2018/19 soybean imports to 85.0 MMT from 83.7 MMT previously, but would still be down 10% (9.1 MMT) from last year’s 94.1 MMT. They cited an expected decline in rapeseed imports to be replaced by soybean imports, prompting the higher estimate. USDA last estimated their soybean imports this year at 88.0 MMT. They also lowered their estimated net decline in the country’s soybean ending stocks from the previous year to 2.1 MMT from 3.4 MMT estimated last month. China does not publish official stocks estimates, but rather reflects the balance sheet in terms of expected net change in annual stocks. China also reduced their estimate of the net decline in corn stocks in 2018/19 from last year to 24.5 MMT from 26.5 MMT previously due to a 2 MMT cut in expected total consumption. 2018/19 palm oil imports are estimated at 4.0 MMT vs 3.9 MMT previously and 3.6 MMT last year, with rapeseed oil imports of 900k tonnes down from 1.0 MMT previously estimated and 1.1 MMT last year.
 China’s February soybean imports fell to 4.46 MMT, down sharply from 7.38 MMT in January and were well below year ago Feb imports of 5.42 MMT, while being the lowest for the month since 2015. Marketing year-to-date (Oct-Feb) imports are down 8.1 MMT from last year.
 A mild winter, good recent rains in some areas and the expansion of planted area have European grain industry participants optimistic about this year’s EU wheat production prospects. France saw the 2nd warmest February on record, while good rains of late on top of the estimated 2.9% winter wheat area expansion are lifting crop hopes. Additionally, France’s winter wheat crop is currently rated 86% good/excellent vs 85% last week and 81% at this time last year. German winter wheat planted area is estimated up 4.6% from last year, Britain up 4% and Poland up 2%.
 Given the favorable EU weather conditions and higher acreage, Coceral’s first estimate of the 2019 EU soft wheat crop at 139.8 MMT reflects a solid increase from last year’s 127.4 MMT and was mostly in line with the European Commission’s first estimate released earlier in the week of 140.8 MMT. Coceral’s first estimate of the EU barley crop of 59.4 MMT is up solidly from last year’s 56.1 MMT, while early ideas on the EU corn crop were put at 61.0 MMT vs 60.3 MMT last year. 2019 EU rapeseed production was estimated at 18.5 MMT vs 19.7 MMT last year on reduced planted area.
 Brazil’s northern ports have been unable to receive soybeans since Tuesday due to impassable conditions on the main BR-163 route. ABIOVE said ports in the north were at imminent risk of running out of soybeans, with operations not seen returning to normal for at least a week once trucks begin arriving again. Progress has been made in reopening the closed sections, but could be a slow go in the days ahead.
ï‚· India is expected to lower their corn import duty to 10-15% from 60% currently following their reduced production this year, while the government is seen giving permission to open a tender for around 500k tonnes of corn imports over the coming week. Any imports must be non-GMO.
 Argentina’s oilseed crushing industry association, CIARA, said nearly half of the country’s soybean crush capacity could be idled this year if there isn’t a change in the U.S./China trade war which helps return global trade patterns back to a more normal situation. Argentine crush activity has been sharply reduced since the trade war began as U.S. soybean prices were negatively impacted, making U.S. soybean meal highly competitive into typical Argentine markets, while keeping crush margins very strong resulting in a continual record crush pace in the U.S. It was stated the more than half of the local crush capacity around Rosario was unused in December. The trade war has also resulted in Argentina exporting an unusually large amount of soybeans, as well, as China sourced soybeans from any location they could, with Argentina’s move to equalize the export tax structure between raw soybeans and products also reducing the demand for products.
 The EPA’s proposal for attempting to limit unwarranted price spikes in RIN values due to speculative trading includes the barring of non-industry participants from trading in biofuel credit markets, making large positions public, limiting the length of time unneeded RINs can be held to prevent hoarding and requiring quarterly retirement of RINs vs the current annual guideline among other price transparency factors.
ï‚· South Korea bought another 60k tonnes of optional-origin (very likely non-US) corn overnight, priced at $191.60/tonne c&f for late September arrival.
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