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-Argentine corn sales continue well below US values
-Ideas of Russian wheat export limits disputed
-Ukraine corn exports appear set to remain active
-No USDA sales announcements

 

EIA ethanol data will be out later this morning with strong focus remaining on the notable slowdown in production reflected in recent weeks. Tomorrow’s Export Sales report will be the first “normal†report in quite some time and will reflect single-week sales data for the week ended 2/21/19.
 
 Rhetoric over potential Russian wheat export limits resurfaced overnight, likely providing the supportive element for Matif and U.S. wheat futures. Reportedly, a Russian newspaper said the government had set informal grain export quotas in order to prevent exports from exceeding current official estimates, while also discussing the delays in shipments due to stricter quality inspections. However, the Russian Ag Ministry directly disputed the report stating no restrictions have been, or are planned to be, put in place. Separately, ag consultant Sovecon raised their estimate of 2018/19 Russian wheat exports to 35.9 MMT from 35.6 MMT previously (USDA 37.0 MMT), while media reports citing an unnamed Russian wheat trader indicated there is still likely 4-5 MMT of old crop Russian wheat yet to be exported, which should continue run right through the end of the marketing year in June, and potentially even into July. This would definitely reflect a significant reduction from last year’s massive late-season exports amid the record export program, as 13.3 MMT of wheat was exported during March-June, as well as being down solidly from 2017’s March-June exports of 8.1 MMT, but it does show Russia will not be completely absent in the months ahead.
 South Africa’s first official estimate of this year’s corn crop wasn’t as bleak as expected, putting early production ideas at 10.510 MMT vs average market expectations of 9.962 MMT, but still down sharply from last year’s 12.510 MMT. Perhaps the bigger surprise was the estimate of planted area of 2.302 million hectares (5.69 million acres) being down only marginally from last year’s 2.319 mil hectares (5.73 mil acres) vs expectations for a decent decline given the notable dryness during the planting season.
ï‚· South Korean feedmills bought a total of 133k tonnes of expected South American (Argentine) corn overnight, priced at $199.79- $200.90/tonne c&f for July arrival. Exclusive of freight, this appears to pencil at around $162/tonne vs U.S. Gulf corn around $175/tonne.
 Ukrainian corn exports reached 15.8 MMT vs 9.6 MMT at this time last year, which would leave 12.7 MMT left to export during March-June if the USDA’s 2018/19 export projection of 28.5 MMT is correct and would be up sharply from last year’s sameperiod exports of 8.4 MMT.
ï‚· There were no USDA sales announcements this morning.
 
 
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