-China commitment to buy more U.S. soybeans leads to overnight strength
-Trade talks continue in positive direction – March tariff deadline delayed
-Brazilian soybean harvest continues at lightning pace
-Iraq tenders for wheat
-Cattle on Feed lower than expected
-USDA reports corn sold to Mexico – mostly new crop
-Favorable South American forecasts continue
Soybeans were higher overnight following the announcement after the close on Friday that China committed to by another 10 MMT of US soybeans as trade talks continue to make solid progress. No details on the expected timing of the purchases and/or shipping period were mentioned, which obviously will be key in terms of the potential to still reach the USDA’s 2018/19 export projection of 1.875 billion bushels. Without a good portion of the eventual additional 10 MMT in sales to China being for old crop delivery, the USDA’s current projections appears likely to be too high. As of last Thursday’s Export Sales data, now through 02/14/19, China had bought 7.4 MMT of U.S. soybeans for 2018/19 delivery vs 26.2 MMT at the same time last year. While obviously a positive near term development for the U.S., the flipside of this situation is that, should these purchases be for 2018/19 delivery, they are occurring during a period when China is typically actively buying Brazilian soybeans for March-August shipment, which would likely leave a greater amount of Brazilian supplies competing for deals to non-Chinese destinations for a longer period of time than usual.
ï‚· President Trump said the March 1 deadline for additional import tariffs on Chinese products will be delayed given the ongoing positive direction of trade talks and, assuming both sides continue to make additional progress, a summit with Chinese President Xi will be planned “to conclude an agreement.â€
ï‚· Chinese corn and soybean meal futures were solidly lower overnight, with traders citing the ongoing African swine fever epidemic and increasing likelihood of U.S./China trade deal for the weakness. Dalian SBM futures hit their lowest level since November 2017.
ï‚· AgRural estimates 45% of the Brazilian soybean crop is harvested vs 25% at this time last year and 27% average. Mato Grosso is estimated to be 80% harvested already.
ï‚· Indonesian palm oil production in January was estimated at 3.6 MMT vs 3.9 MMT in December and 3.586 MMT last year January, according to a wire service survey of industry associations/analysts. End January palm oil stocks in Indonesia were seen at 2.853 MMT vs 3.434 MMT in December and 3.701 MMT last year, while exports for the month were estimated at 3.045 MMT vs 2.900 MMT in December and 2.737 MMT last year.
ï‚· APK-Inform saw Ukrainian soft milling wheat prices have declined around 3% in the last two weeks.
ï‚· After the close on Friday, Iraq tendered for an unspecified amount of U.S./Canadian/Australian wheat, with offers due by March 4.
 Friday afternoon’s USDA Cattle on Feed report showed lower than expected numbers for Jan 1 on feed, Dec placements and Dec marketings. On feed as of Jan was up 1.8% from last year (+2.2% expected), while Dec placements were down 1.8% from last year vs the average expectation for a 1.5% increase.
ï‚· USDA reported the sale of 279k tonnes of corn to Mexico this morning, with the majority (191k tonnes) being for new crop 2019/20 delivery and 89k tonnes for 2018/19 delivery
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