-With government funding temporarily restored, market awaits resumption of key report data
-Russia lowers wheat export estimate – new crop production ideas little-changed from this year
-US/China trade talks Wed-Thur
-South American weather forecasts improving
 With the partial government shutdown getting a 3-week reprieve, USDA’s chief economist said the upcoming WASDE supply/demand report will be released on February 8 as scheduled. He did not provide a timeline, for now, on the eventual release schedule of the Annual Crop Production report, Grain Stocks report and Winter Wheat Seedings report, which were initially set to be released on January 11, saying information on those reports “will be forthcoming once all USDA staff return to work.†While not officially reported as such yet, we expect those reports will be released on February 8, as well. The January WASDE report will be skipped. Additionally, if the government remains fully funded, the USDA’s annual Ag Outlook conference will take place as planned February 21-22, but would be in jeopardy if the shutdown ensues after the current February 15 deadline. We are also awaiting notification of the resumption of the Export Sales report (we assume will be out on Thursday), as well as other key reports such as the monthly Oilseeds Crushings and Grain Crushings reports, both of which are supposed to be released on Friday, February 1. Commitments of Traders data should resume on Friday, as well.
 The EPA said they expect to complete the proposal on the expansion of sales of E15 ethanol blends during summer months in time for the rule to be in place for this summer’s driving season despite delays due to the government shutdown.
 Russia’s Ag Ministry lowered their estimate of 2018/19 wheat exports to 36 MMT from 37 MMT previously (USDA 36.5 MMT). Additionally, in what is believed to be a reference to early ideas on 2019/20, they put preliminary total grain production ideas at 108-110 MMT, which would actually be down from this year’s 113 MMT, with wheat production ideas at 67 MMT and, again, would be down from this year’s 70 MMT. Those ideas appear to be rather conservative in our opinion. Separately, Russia’s head weather office said weather conditions for winter crops have been favorable so far.
 SovEcon estimates Russian wheat exports in January will be 1.9 MMT, down from 3.734 MMT in December and below last year’s January exports of 2.478 MMT. If accurate, 2018/19 marketing year-to-date (July-Jan) wheat exports would be 26.5 MMT vs 23.8 MMT last year.
ï‚· US/Chinese trade talks are to take place Wed-Thur in Washington.
ï‚· South American weather forecasts look less threatening with improved rains in the driest Brazilian areas, and drier conditions in the wettest Argentine locations.
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